$100 NL 6-max. I get [4s] otb. UTG limps, MP raises to $3, I call, UTG calls. Blinds fold.

Pot $10.50. Flop [4c][2h]. UTG chks, MP bets $8, I instapush. I have a little less than a full stack, they both cover.

I actually had some time to think about what to do because UTG took some time before checking, and MP's bet wasn't instant either. I decided I didn't want to see any A, 3, 6, or club come and kill my action, and that my push had a good chance of looking like 33 or a couple of clubs. I hoped a quick bet would look more bluffy. So I did it as fast as I could.

Like? Hate? Standard?

Roy,

forum/viewtopic.php?t=21129

shows a very similar hand from the POV of a guy with a big overpair (KK in this case).

Advice from our posters in that hand was unanimous: call all day. Original poster did call and lost to the flopped 2 pair. But you think "a solid player" will likely fold an overpair here? Which solid player?

Would you fold the flop here if you were the preflop raiser and held JJ-AA?

....

WayToGo: I'm confused by your reply. I don't want to win the pot right now. I want him to call for it all.

....

I'm not saying my play was brilliant or anything, in fact I'm still pretty conflicted about it, and I'd welcome more feedback. Thanks, as always.

K3nt - it would depend on how I percieved you. If I thought you were a donk (which I almost never would) I would usually call with an overpair. If I thought you were a solid player (and being a good player myself i'd almost certainly have this read after only a few orbits) I would fold. It's hard to put you on a slowplayed big pair (JJ+) when you just called a small raise and you're OTB. You also would never push with a small overpair, ever, so that reduces your hand range even more. By just calling on the buton AND pushing this flop, your hand range is basically: , or overs and a flush draw (KQc, AJc maybe), or 22 - 55. Maybe something like if you were feeling particularly frisky in your pre-flop calling standards, so yes, if I was the villian and had an overpair here, i'd fold against you.

Of course, not all villians have that good a read (or are any good at handreading) so that's where things get a little murky. When I said "i don't like it vs a good player", there aren't many good players out there - especially at 100nl. So the majority of the time you're up against a bad/poor player and I like the push.

Perhaps if I change what I said to this - It's okay vs a bad player, good vs an okay player, and bad vs a great player. If that makes any sense at all. Basically, depending on the skill level of your opponent, the successfullness of this play will change. Bad players will see an overpair and think "i have to get my money in now!". Good players will look at your overbet shove and think one level deeper "he wouldn't do that with a big hand, therefore, he is bluffing or has a draw, i'm going to make a risky call with 66-AA". Greater players will go a level deeper and think "he knows i would put him on a draw when he pushes, so he would not push a draw. His hand range is xxx and he would only push with yyy, and yyy is ahead of my range zzz so therefore this is a fold". On the other hand, vs a great player, if you make a normal sized re-raise, he will usually call to see what you will do on later streets. They will think "I can't fold aces to a simple raise on the flop, his range is huge and i'm ahead of most of it". I think this is flawed thinking, and truelly elite players can (and probably should) lay down an overpair to a raise from you on this flop.

Edit: I just re-read my response and noticed a couple of flaws/lack of detail in my thought process. Nothing major, and my point should still get across that it really depends on the opponent. Things I forgot to mention include the likelyness of your opponent folding on a later street to a scared card when he would've called an overbet shove, and contrastly the likelyhood your opponent would call you down with a worse hand when the board doesn't get scary where he would've folded to your overbet shove on the flop. There really is an enormous amount of detail you can get into when trying to work out the best way to play a poker hand, but in the end, it comes down to your opponent a lot (how you perceive them, how they percieve you, how the game has been playing so far, previous history, etc etc).

To sum up my already too long post, in this case, with zero reads, I like the push. In this case, with no reads, if I were the villian and had JJ-AA, I would also call the push.

If this is good anywhere, it's at 100NL Tribeca.

What a bunch of great responses. Thanks, guys.

Roy, I think I understand your point. Good players who recognize good (mostly TAG) players can get away from non-bluffs-trying-to-look-like-bluffs.... So if I want to maximize EV against you in this hand, how should I play it? If you think I'm solid and you have an overpair on this board, how (if at all) am I going to get another dime out of you?


Anyway, results ... he called pretty quickly and showed AA with the . So he had significant equity in the pot and wasn't making much of a mistake with the call. 9 outs on the flop and usually 12 on the turn, plus the runner-runner flush draw.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5c 4c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5s 4s 582 58.79 385 38.89 23 2.32 0.599
Ac Ad 385 38.89 582 58.79 23 2.32 0.401

But this time I got lucky and the turn and river bricked.