I was in a 20 +2 tournament last night. there were about 29 people left in the tournament. (Top ten paid)

I had about 11K more than any other stack at 40K(pretty substantial at the time)

I'm in middle position and look down to find AK suited.

someone in early postion bumps it up to 2400 to go(blinds were 400/800. he was the second largest stack at the table and had 29K or so. a short stack of only about 3000 goes all in.....

now is where I'd like some analysis...

I ended up just calling, and the 29K stack thought about it for a while and ended up just calling...
the flop comes J94....I missed

the 29K stack bets 800....I figure the odds are there to call since its 9000 in the pot. so I call
the turn is an A....

He bets 3000 this time. without thinking I call
river is a blank
he bets 9K or so...
I call
he shows the set. 999

I lose half my stack almost
and end up bubbling out.

I see this hand as my crucial error and had I acted differently I should have made that final table

So what should I have done here?

Fold- I keep thinking about this and can't decide if its the right move or not. I have a huge stack, so why risk chips....but then again. its a short stack moving all in and I had AK suited....

Go All In- This is what I think I should have done. the player with 29K seemed pretty solid and fairly tight aggresive. It would have been very difficult to call 2 all in's with 99. I think the reason I didnt was something I remembered from Syndrome's post(Although I'm sure he would have played this differntly as he's much better than me) about avoiding a race situation where ever possible, had I gone all in and he called me I would have been down to about 11K and pretty much out of the tournament, but that would be a large raise and a large risk considering he was 2nd in chips in the whole tournament. I def. think this is what I should have done in retrospect

Just Calling- My thought here was I can see the flop, and if an A or K miss thats ok I'll just check/fold. well that minimum bet sucked me in and I hit an A to lose the pot.....


I really really want some analysis here, and maybe some pointers on how to play in the "bubble" stages of the tournament. I can tell I'm getting better in my tourney game because instead of losing in the first hour I'm busting out on the bubble I'd just like some advice, because I plan ot play in this tournament again very soon. I'm driven to win a tournament and this one could have been in had it not been for that one mistake.....

I thank you in advance for any feedback
Freshwater

TJ Cloutier would recommend this...of course call the preflop...if no A or K on flop and a bet by someone else? Fold.
Don't mess with the big chip leader or the 2nd big chip leader if you're big chip, unless you've got a cod lock hand. (the nuts)
Personally ( there'll be other insights here) i'd fold after the bet on the flop...that other guy must have been good, he'd check it down if he had not much, since he's good, a small bet by him seems to be begging someone to call him...course all this is hindsight, so i'll stick to my first 2 lines above. You'll stay no. 1 or 2 big chip leader, look for better places to put it in, and yes, you've got plenty of staying power to get in the money.

I think all in would have pushed him out. But I also think if you would have made it T6000 instead of just calling would have pushed him out also. Just calling is one of two things. weakness or a monster. 99 wasn't sure so he only called. 99 hit pay dirt and bets the min into a 10K pot. Did you think he wanted to see if you would fold? Even if you knew he had trips you have to call that bet. You didn't raise so he knows you don't have a PP bigger then J and that you missed the J. Once the A hit and he bet T3000 you have to think ok he has an A but I have top kicker You have to call T3000 for a T14000 pot with TPTK. The river was blank. He fires over half the pot bet at you. Would he do that with 1 pair? I would have put him on AJ not trips.

The hardest thing to do in a MTT after you have been playing for 2.5 to 3 hours is get away from a hand. You've been playing tight and you finally hit a hand. Only problem is someone is betting into. Instead of only seeing what you have ask yourself what could he have to make him bet that way.

Folding AK in this situation is not an option. Where I feel you made your first mistake was not raising the short stacks all in at least 2 X the short stack. Your second mistake was you turned into a calling station after the flop. When he bet T800 after the flop you have to raise or fold. If you have fired T1600 back at him. He would have either smooth called are put you all in right there.If he re-raises all in you just let the hand go you know where you stand. If he smooth calls you have to think he is chasing.

On the turn you hit TP but again you only called. Bad thing about it now you have TP and the hand is harder to get away from. Wait a minute he went from min bet after the flop to almost 4 X the BB bet after the turn. Does he have AJ or is he making a play at the pot with AQ. You can't raise a 4 X the BB with TPTK. So calling here is ok. Now the pot is blank but he fires 12 X the BB at the pot. I don't think he would do this with AQ or less. Time to muck even though I know it is hard to do. This was your 3rd mistake calling the river bet with only TPTK

Bubble play takes a long time to figure out. You raise when you have a hand and muck when you don't that is about all you can do. As you play more you will be able to steal more.

Good luck on the next one.