by Devbert » Mon Jan 08, 2007 2:44 pm
In #2 he called a button raise OOP in a short-handed game and he's leading into you on the flop and turn, so he must have little to no fear of your hand - so basically the very worst he could have is K-Q or Q-J, which are the only two hands you think he would reasonably fold (that and a weak two pair, but what two-pair could he have besides the flopped 8-9?).
Very little long-term value to be gained from this play, since the 25% of the time he folds K-Q or Q-J you win $86 in profit and the 75% of the time he re-pops you with A-Q, 9-9, 8-8, J-10 you get to not see if you made one of 15 outs and you get to lose $228 of your dollars.
Basically, your gonna lose three times as much three times as often, all without getting to see the river card while you hold an open-ended straigh/flush draw - It just don't look good no matter how you spin it.
"Never cease to be amazed by the depths or excessiveness of human stupidity."