by GodlikeRoy » Thu Feb 08, 2007 10:08 am
Because a lot of draws on that board are actually a favourite over you. Any pair + any diamond and you're behind. Any OESD with any diamond and you're behind. Gutshot + diamond and you're close to even money. Against a set you're way way behind. Against a hand like Ad Kx or Kd Kx you're only very slightly ahead. Against a flopped flush you're drawing dead to a running fullhouse. Against a one-pair hand without a diamond, you're a significant favourite.
Adding it all up, calling here is usually a way way behind or slightly ahead situation. Because his bet is such a huge overbet of the pot, I think it's -EV to call.
FWIW I wouldn't put him on AA, AK, or any decent hand here, as he limped OTB. I think it's much more likely for him to have a hand like SCs or a PP that hit a set. Maybe JQ or something, or Ax in diamonds or with just the Ad.
Last edited by
GodlikeRoy on Thu Feb 08, 2007 10:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
Poker is silly.
It is not enough to be good at chess, you must also play well.
Somewhere in the world someone is training when you are not. When you race him, he will win.