by Felonius_Monk » Sun Feb 11, 2007 3:16 pm
I bet here because:
a) Most importantly, you're in position, and I basically always bet an unraised pot when I have position on the field and a good hand. If OOP the later streets are much harder to play but I have no problem playing a good sized pot here because I am better than the other players and will always be last to act.
b) Your hand is good - it's got 40%+ equity against virtually every other hand. Of course you could get squeezed between two better draws, or a higher flush draw and a set or whatever, but there's no reason to suspect any of that at present.
c) Betting helps you clean up your yanky flush draw against any draws up to a K (e.g. most players won't call here with an 8-K high flush draw). It may also clean up your straight/2-pair outs a bit. Not betting is kind of giving up on all these possible holdings because if you turn any of them there are several opponents who could have you beat and it becomes harder to bet IMO.
d) there's significant fold equity. Not betting the flop, and THEN betting the turn (where there is a FAR smaller chance of getting all your opponents to fold and to win the pot outright) seems a backwards strategy to me, you minimise your fold equity.
It seems baffling to me to raise a yanky hand preflop (which I often do in LP and have no problem with) and then check if when you hit an excellent flop. What exactly are you wanting to flop here? Ideally, when you hit your flop, you're hoping either everyone folds (fairly likely), or that you get called by a bare flush draw with position and a good shot at outplaying them, or you get raised by a bare draw/two pair/set or something and get it all in as neutral EV or slight favourite against that range. I wouldn't raise if you're not going to bet when you hit your flop, it seems counter-productive to me (although I'm playing quite passive of late and I have, on occasion, made checks in not dissimilar spots, but here I think you have to fire; I find myself getting gunshy like this sometimes when I think my image is getting pretty loose, which, when you think about it, is daft - keep pushing it). You should also note that BB can't put any hurt on you here (once you bet you're pot committed to his stack size), so you're only looking to one player who could force you into a mistake for your stack.
My two penneth anyhoo.
The Monkman J[c]
"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993