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I know what you have here, would you fold? 400NL, SH - Live Poker Forums

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I know what you have here, would you fold? 400NL, SH

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I know what you have here, would you fold? 400NL, SH

Postby Zmej » Mon Feb 12, 2007 6:56 am

I played a hand yesterday that made me wonder if I could make my opponent fold on the river.

Opponent was a reasonable one (30/8 kind), not exatly a calling station, and normally he raises with any good hand, so after he called my flop and turn bets and checked river I had him on Jx.

Full stacks.
:
Hero is OTB with 2 cards that he choses to raise, but he doesn't connect to the flop well enough.
BB - opponent in this hand.

Preflop: Hero raises to 11, BB calls.
Flop (23): [Jh] [4s] [2d]
BB checks, Hero bets 17, BB calls.
Turn (57): [Qd]
BB checks, Hero bets 40, BB calls.
River (137): [2s]
BB checks, Hero?

Here the problem: I can type his hand in the chat, he will have AJ, KJ in 80% cases here.
May be JT is possible too, but much less likely. I also thought that he will likely call a bet of about 100 here.

In the hand I cursed a bit and checked behind and he took it with KJ.
After the hand I thought that I could try an overbet here.

I mean would he call a 300 bet here? Does people have a line when they are not ready to call? ( Keep in mind that he was not a calling station against whom I wouldn't even think about bluffing the river.)

It would be a bit strange line for me to take though, and I don't have experience with such kind of plays, so no idea how often it works.
Some thoughts on this possible play?

And if you think it's not good too bluff, then I should do it with KK, AA? It just seems to me that there is some room for improvement. If I can tell what my oppoennt has , I should be able to convert this info into value higher than a standard line affords.

Thanks for feedback.

P.S. I don't remember my exact hand, I think I had some outs when I bet flop and turn. It could be something like A5s for a gutshot and A, but I couldn't bet Jx on the river.

P.S.S. Hope that it was not too long.
"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Postby epidemic » Mon Feb 12, 2007 8:58 am

It would work against me :D no way id call of a full stack on a hand like KJ in a raised pot especially with over cards.

If probably depends on his perception of you. if youve bet every street with nothing previously when youve been the preflop raiser and missed he may call you down. I would assume people at the $400s would be taking account of table image.

Maybe if you played a set or similar strong hand the same way and showed the hand it may work to your advantage to use this play in this situation. you d have to be pretty sure of his holding though

You'd have to be sure hes capable of making the laydown initially i guess
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Postby Stoneburg » Mon Feb 12, 2007 9:02 am

I think it is a bad idea to bluff this river after he calls the turn. Psychologically I think he has made up his mind to call you down unless the board changes and that deuce on the river is a real brick. And of course I think it is highly -EV to try and force people off TP in general.
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Postby Zmej » Mon Feb 12, 2007 9:16 am

"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Postby Electrolux » Mon Feb 12, 2007 9:41 am

If you would write "AJ or KJ in the chat?" and then bet, I am not sure that I would call with those hands. And then I am not sure that you even need to overbet the pot. You could actually try with a lower amount, e.g. 3/4 of pot that would look even scarier. And with a 3/4 bet you do not need to make him fold that often for it to be profitable.

If you have that good read on him, there must be a lot of other spots where you actually can make use of it. So just wait for the right spot.
- Mexicans are filthy. I once blew a Mexican. I had diarrhea for a week. Sarah Silverman

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Postby Stoneburg » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:29 am

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