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This seems wrong, JJ against a nit NL100 - Live Poker Forums

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This seems wrong, JJ against a nit NL100

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This seems wrong, JJ against a nit NL100

Postby phytopath » Sat Feb 10, 2007 7:13 pm

Alright no converter so here goes my manual conversion

iPoker skin NL (1$) 8-max
I have been playing my usual tight aggressive style taking down alot of smallish pots.

The villian in this hand is a rock 18/5/3, over about 400 hands and is on the button. Seems relatively weak-tight and makes alot of what appear to be good laydowns. He has about 70$, I cover.

Anyway I am on the BB with [Jd] [Js] , It is folded around to the villian on the button who makes a standard 4$ raise. I 3-bet to 12$, he then min 4-bets me to 20$, so I call.

Flop comes out

[Ts] [Qs] [8s]


Action is to me, villian has about 50$ left and the pot is around 40$, I push how bad is this?

In hindsite I shouldn't have 3 bet this nit pre-flop, the flop play seems rather awkward to me though and not really sure what the heck is an ideal line here. I put him on AA/KK, I also feel he may fold those hands if he doesn't have the flush draw to go with it, however if he bets he is totally committed to the pot, he may be already. Blah, guess I'm just lost here.
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Postby Mr_Burnout » Sun Feb 11, 2007 3:27 pm

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Postby black_knight6 » Mon Feb 12, 2007 12:37 am

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Postby Alchemist » Mon Feb 12, 2007 5:54 am

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Postby Jossnaz » Mon Feb 12, 2007 5:56 am

I'd call his minraise and play for the set

My thoughts:
The odds for calling his minraise are marginal

Perhaps I'm wrong, correct me please.
every ~8th time you hit the set.

lets imagine we live in a perfect world and you take his stack down each time you hit the set, and fold every other time.

7*8=56
1*82=82 [thanks to Alchemist correcting my big mistake here, which changed my mind]
makes you ahead 26 dollars
Last edited by Jossnaz on Mon Feb 12, 2007 8:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Alchemist » Mon Feb 12, 2007 6:04 am

You're calling $8 after the minraise to win $82 ($70 of villains stack + $12 of your original raise which is now in the pot) so yeah it's kinda marginal but since he's short and we know he has KK/AA you'll get his stack enough for it to be +EV IMO
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Postby iceman5 » Mon Feb 12, 2007 8:31 am

Preflop is fine. I agree with calling the preflop reraise and playing for a set since he has AA / KK almost always, but once I see this flop and I know hes a bit weak tight, I open push.

The pot is too big to check / fold. Odds are slightly in your favor that he doesnt have a spade.
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Postby Stoneburg » Mon Feb 12, 2007 9:10 am

Mjeh. If he doesn't have a spade it's a coinflip, but if he has a spade you're drawing to 5 outs and he has redraws if you hit, Looks like your typical small favorite/huge dog scenario with zero fold equity.

Against a rock I don't think it's that good to 4-bet JJ, you're actually way behind his range, a lot of these players don't steal so his HD is probably TT-AA and AQ/AK when he makes the first raise, and you're OOP. I'd flat call and see what comes on the flop. If I flop an overpair I'm trying to get a cheap showdown. Now in that scenario, you would actually have fold equity on this flop and some chips to play with.
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Postby Zmej » Mon Feb 12, 2007 9:14 am

5% is too nitty for my taste, so I would just call here preflop. Moreover he has less than a full stack, that would be one more reason for a call for me.

As played I think your push is -EV. You entirely rely on him folding AA and KK everytime without a spade, while I doubt that many players would fold them. In a more realistic case that he calls with all aces and kings with a spade, while folding all kings without a spade your push is -EV. (QQ doesn't add much into calculation.) (Though I think that he will call with all kings.)

I think a better line would be to check and see what he does here, if he doesn't have a spade he could ellect to check behind giving you a free card to draw on him.
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Postby KikoSanchez » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:04 am

IMO, reraising 3x here is too small - I would do 3.5-4 being OOP to a nit who will prob just give it to you any time he has less than JJ/AKs. On the flop, hmm it's about 95% he's calling with KK/AA with the size of the pot I doubt he's folding even without a spade.
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Postby phytopath » Mon Feb 12, 2007 12:59 pm

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Postby phytopath » Mon Feb 12, 2007 1:10 pm

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Postby Stoneburg » Mon Feb 12, 2007 1:27 pm

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