Blind vs Blind and Blind vs Steal Hands in Limit
This may end up being a very lengthy and rather technical post, but hopefully it will end up helping my limit game and that of anyone who may read it.
Where as I consider that many, but not all, of my problems are possibly due to bad runs (ie getting it all-in way ahead and being sucked out on a higher % of times than should happen so far in a not so significant sample size), I believe that my problems in limit are more due to my play and opposing player skill level.
I don't believe that I am a bad player, as a matter of fact I believe that I am a good limit plalyer, but it seems that the majority of limit players even in the 1/2 stakes are good aggressive players and much better than those stakes have seen in the past. My numbers after 17,193 hands at the 1/2 limit stakes are the following.......
17/7.5/29 2.08 Total AF +$9.36 or +0.03 bb/100
That is the epidimy of a break even player if I ever saw one. My goal, of course, is to not only beat the 1/2 limit game, but improve to a +3-5 bb/100 area.
One of my biggest leaks has become blind vs blind or blind vs steal (lp raise) hands. While it does seem that far too often I am holding a big hand (AQs+ or TT+) in this situation only to be facing a better hand or a worse hand that ends up better, but there must be more to it than that. Even in those situations I believe I may be hanging onto or being too aggressive with these hands in the belief that they are stronger than they are in heads up situations against either a blind who came in for a discount or a LP raiser/stealer in position. Following are the blind vs blind and blind vs steal hands I played in my last session with some analysis to follow.......
Hand #1:
[Js] in the SB
Button - not loose, but very aggressive player who does not give up and does not usually fold. I have more hands vs this player (900+) than any other player in my database. I have seen her raise with hands like A3s and KJo from early to middle position and on many occasions call down with Ace high. (22/18/37)
BB - not many hands, but he had cold called a preflop raise OTB and shown down KTo. Not very aggressive, but did not like to fold (28/4/31)
Folded to button who raises, I 3-bet, BB calls 2, and Button caps, I call, BB calls
[Td][7c] Pot 12 SB (I don't like this flop, but knowing Button's tendencies doesn't lead me to believe I am definitely behind here)
Checked to Button who bets, I raise hoping to discourage BB from hanging around with AJ or the like which works, and Button just calls
Pot 8 BB
I bet, Button raises, and I dump.
Aftermath: I believe that I played this hand well and folded when I should. Of course there was a small chance I was still ahead, but it was much more likely that I was behind or Button had a number of outs. I still like my flop c/r as it knocked BB out and also let Button know that I was serious about this hand which in turn made me respect her turn raise a bit more than I normally would have. What am I beating there that she raises?
[Qd] which would have a number outs on me anyway? I can't see her raising the turn with anything else I beat here.
Saved Bets? - It would have cost me 2 additional bets to see the river (12-2 or 6-1). Again I think folded this hand correctly here and added 2 BB to my bottom line.
History:
- PT tells me that I've had JJ in the SB 8x. I've won 62.5% of those hands for a net of +$16.75 or +$2.09 per hand or 1.05 BB/hand.
- This was only the 2nd time I've faced a blind vs blind or blind vs steal situation with JJ in the SB. The other time I won 3.25 BB from the BB.
Conclusion: - Although a small sample size, I don't consider JJ to be a leak. In fact after reviewing all JJ hands in the SB as well as just the overall stats for JJ in BB, CO, and OTB (all positive) I consider it to be a strength from these positions.
Hand 2:
[9c] in the BB
Different table, but Button is the same opponent from last hand so I know her well.
Folded to Button who raises, SB folds, I call
[Ac][Ad] Pot 4.5 SB (Obviously a golden flop. Button may have the last Ace, but knowing that she'll raise A3s from EP/MP means she's raising any Ace from the Button and I beat more than half of those. Many more good scenarious than bad for me here.)
I check/call the flop
Pot 3.25 BB (Not elated about the diamond, but I can't really worry about that heads up here)
I throw in a check-raise which gets called, not raised which makes me feel even better.
Pot 7.25 BB (While this card means I'm not losing the pot, it also may mean I'm splitting instead of winning so I'm not sure what I think about this river yet)
I bet, Button calls
Button shows
[Qs]
Aftermath: As much as I loved that flop, I now have to admit that the turn card was the most important card on that board giving Button a pair of Kings. I think I played this hand brilliantly and my check/call instead of c/r on the flop allowed Button to not only catch a King, but also believe she was ahead since I played the flop passively.
Saved Bets? - Obviously I didn't save any bets since I won, but I did feel that I added at least 1 BB and possibly 2 by waiting until the turn to c/r.
History:
- PT tells me that I've been dealt A9o in the BB 15x and won 33.33% of those hands (5x) for a profit of +$5.25 or +$0.35 per hand or +0.18 bb/hand
- I've been in one blind vs blind situation with this hand from the BB and won on the flop and one other blind vs steal attempt and folded to a bad flop.
Conclusion: After reviewing all A9o from the BB hands as well as from the SB, CO, and OTB I don't consider A9o and therefore medium Aces (A7-AT) to be a leak. I am slightly more negative than I would like to, but that stems from a big pot I lost from the button to JJ in the BB where I flopped an Ace and JJ hit a set on the river. I seem to play A9 very passively against steals, calling and folding when I miss, and very aggressively in blind vs blind situations which I believe is correct. I can't find any situations where I've taken this hand too far after a CO or OTB open-raise on my part and then met resistance when I missed.
To be continued.....maybe. There are a few more hands and this is more time consuming than I thought it would be. There is an AQs hand in the blinds that I could just kick myself for even though I was a little unlucky to be up against AK OTB. There was an AJ hand I lost to JTs after hitting an Ace and a K6s hand I may have taken took too far in a blind vs blind battle. Also a QJ BB hand I got lucky on vs KQ.