UTG has good preflop stats, like 27/10, but he overplays TPTK type hands postflop.
I've also seen him to buy-in short, so it's likely he is not one of the MT regulars.

Seat 3: UTG ($528.60 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($785.40 in chips)
Seat 5: P1 ($442.60 in chips)
Seat 7: P2 ($368.40 in chips)
Seat 8: P3 ($30.20 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
P2 posts blind ($2), P3 posts blind ($4).

PRE-FLOP
UTG bets $18, Hero raises to $55, UTG calls

FLOP(113):
UTG bets $113, Hero?
who pushes now? Who calls? Why?










(I chose to call)
Hero calls $113.

TURN (339):
UTG bets $112, Hero raises AI.

Thoughts on turn play? I guess we have to push it here?


All the input is much appreciated.

I like to push the flop here.

He can have a very wide range of hands here and you're only really 'crushed' by one, A and I don't think he'd bet this strongly into you if he had that hand.

He could have QQ, 77, 55. If he has one of these then you are not getting correct odds to call and hit your flush or K and your implied odds are small as he will probably not put his whole stack in with a set with 4 to a flush out there. If you push you get to see both streets and have 11 outs.

He could have a made flush already (I will discount him having the nut flush because I don't think he plays it this fast either, he has no reason to). Again if he has a baby flush, you are definitely not getting odds to draw (7 outs) and he will probably not put much money in if there are 4 to a flush if he has a T-high flush or something.

He could have a top-pair hand without a club. If he has this hand and you push, he may call and be almost drawing dead. If you call and another club comes, he will shut down and you won't get any more. Of course if you call and another club doesn't come, you will probably get his stack, but I think if he is willing to play for it all on the turn with no flush he will often get all-in on the flop with just AQ or something here. If he folds you win a good sized pot also.

He could have a top-pair hand with a club, like in which case you are about a coinflip. Infact you are a coinflip with any x hand. If you push you will get called and be about even money, not a bad situation. If you just call and a club comes on the turn, he will stack you. If you call and a non-club comes, you will get your money in as a considerable favourite. This is one scenario where calling > pushing. However if it's possible for him to have a hand like then you are very happy to get all the money in on the flop as he is a big underdog. I'm not sure how loose he is preflop though with his calls and if hands like these are within his range.

All in all I think pushing > calling on the flop. On the turn, you have to push to make sets pay. If he has a lower flush it's unlikely he's putting anymore money in the pot if you simply call. Same thing if he doesn't have a club. If he has the you're going broke on the river most of the time also.

Results:
Ha had .
With that flop one of us was destined to lose all the money.

I liked Roy's post about the push.