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Live hand..pair and draw

Postby iceman5 » Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:40 pm

$2/$5 NL Live

A couple limpers and I limp [Qd][Jd].

Pot $25. Flop [Ad][Qh][4d]. Tight BB ($250) bets $20, Loose EP ($550) calls, Unk MP ($350) calls. I cover everyone. Whats my play?
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Postby black_knight6 » Mon Mar 05, 2007 12:09 am

Raise to 80 and be okay getting it in. Check behind the turn. You certainly could bet it, but you'll have to call any raise.
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Postby Triple B » Mon Mar 05, 2007 12:41 am

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Postby black_knight6 » Mon Mar 05, 2007 12:47 am

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Postby Spank_her_Pair » Mon Mar 05, 2007 12:48 am

Id call
[5c] [7c]
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Postby Alchemist » Mon Mar 05, 2007 6:24 am

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Postby Xaston » Mon Mar 05, 2007 7:44 am

Boy, you got me confused with a man who repeats himself.
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Postby iceman5 » Mon Mar 05, 2007 8:07 am

The BB is tight. That means he has an ace. He doesnt have to have 2 pair or better just to bet a flop.

Xaston, your play would be?
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Postby Zmej » Mon Mar 05, 2007 8:46 am

IMO it's a clear call here. Tight BB wouldn't lead into so many people without a strong A at least and he is too short to have any folding equity if you raise.

If you wanted to knock-out the callers you caould raise, expecting BB to push and you would threaten them with another raise, but I see no value in pushing the limper out, the pot is not so big yet.
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Postby droqqa » Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:08 am

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Postby T-Rod » Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:18 am

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Postby black_knight6 » Mon Mar 05, 2007 11:37 am

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Postby iceman5 » Mon Mar 05, 2007 1:31 pm

OK, so I raised to $120.

The BB gets ticked off and says "I cant beat his AQ" and folds. Loose EP player now min reraises me to $220 and its folded to me. Its $100 to me. I call.

Pot $505. Turn [Js] and he pushes. Its about $330 to me with a $835 pot.
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Postby Triple B » Mon Mar 05, 2007 2:58 pm

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Postby Aisthesis » Mon Mar 05, 2007 3:16 pm

I like the $120, although I'm also open to the call (I'd probably raise most of the time, but they're giving you awfully good odds).

As to the continuation, I think you're in deep enough that you need to call here. True, you're in moderately bad shape against AJ or AQ. I don't think 44 is quite such a big disaster, nor A4 or KT (which he doesn't have, but is I suppose worth mentioning). You probably don't quite have the odds, but it's close, so I think I'd go ahead and make the call.

Looks to me like 12 outs or 10 with 40 cards left, and some boating outs also gone. Some of the others may also have some of your flush outs, I fear.

With the call plus mini-raise, I think EP looks very much like 44, which would give you the full 12 outs if no one else was drawing to the flush but had maybe some kind of A. You shouldn't really be any worse than 3:1 most of the time, I think, and maybe closer to 2.5:1. I think that's close enough, actually. It's also VAGUELY possible that the loose player is himself drawing to the flush and that you're ahead--probably a bit of a stretch, but maybe 10% of the time, that's what he'll have (something like KJs).
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