by Aisthesis » Sat Mar 10, 2007 12:05 pm
Yeah, the point is well-taken about not making that passive kind of bet against anyone tricky, and I'm not sure about it anyway. But if you check, I guess you're planning on folding if he bets?
Anyhow, here's what I see as his hand range (not necessarily in order of probability):
1) Some kind of two pair or TP with some kind of straight draw but no flush.
2) Straight draw and lower flush draw and yours is still good. On this board something like 6h4h in his hand is going to be a call.
3) Maybe bottom or middle set (although I consider this least likely)
4) TP or 2 pair with some kind of better flush draw than yours (maybe also some kind of gutshot).
I think scenario 4) is definitely in there, but I don't think it happens more than 1/3 of the time. I also think this player will call a passive bet with a 6-high flush pretty often. Surely he'll fold 2 pair to that, although at the $100 (FR on Stars) I've seen them call.
Anyhow, on the line I've suggested (on this particular board, which I think makes a crappy flush also more likely for villain), I think I'd still have to call maybe $30 on the river. I think he's capable of that kind of bet with a worse flush than yours. If it's much more than that, I'm going to give him credit for a bigger flush and fold. If the board pairs, if he bets at all, then I think you're beat.
Also, due to board texture (with your flush being actually pretty strong among hands that have a lot of straight outs), I think that if he does have the flush, it's not much worse than 50:50 that yours is actually better. I think that's the critical assessment here. Otherwise, I'd be willing to go with a check-fold against this type of player.
But I also hate to go with a check-call, although if he's a passive bettor, it might save you money on the times you're beat. But it also gives a free card to 2 pair, which have only 4 outs--but still--, and to little sets, which I consider pretty improbable, but also somewhere in the range nonetheless.
I'll be interested to hear the results on this one. I should also emphasize that I only consider the passive bet legit here against a fairly cally, unimaginative style of player, as it seems this one is.