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Your line? ($200PLO, 6max)

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Your line? ($200PLO, 6max)

Postby Ojingo » Fri Mar 09, 2007 5:11 pm

Villain in this hand is not exactly a stellar player. If he errs, it's usually on the side of being too passive and/or calling too much. He has about $150 to start the hand, I cover.

I get [9h][8h][7c][6c] in the BB; few limpers, I check.

Flop ($10): [Th][7s][5h]. Villain bets 1/2 pot, one caller, I checkraise pot.
Villain is only caller.

Turn: ($75): [Kh].
What do you do and why?
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Postby Aisthesis » Sat Mar 10, 2007 1:17 am

Very interesting one. I've been wondering a lot about situations like this.

I guess the first question is what he has, and I think there are several possibilities. Half-pot and then a call just doesn't look to me like top set, but it unfortunately could be some kind of big heart draw.

So, I'm torn between protecting the hand against something like middle set or top 2 with some kind of draw and checking for info. I don't think this kind of player is going to bet without a flush.

Maybe a bet of $35-$40? It doesn't sound like he's bluffy or going to try to take it away from you unless you're behind. I also think he'll likely check the river with non-nut flush. I think I'd try that, then check any river. I'd have some willingness to fold any river as well if he gets serious about his hand.

I'm not completely excited about this line, but it's about the best I can come up with at the moment. I like it better than a check-call anyway, and if you bet pot, you're more or less pot-committed with a marginal hand. If you get a call on the unenthusiastic bet, I think you're probably behind, but might still get a call out of two pair or a smaller set.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Sat Mar 10, 2007 5:17 am

Given your read on oppo, and the way you've played it, I think a high flush is a very likely holding here. I'm torn between checking (and probably folding if he bets) and Ais's line. Ais's play doesn't look too smart against a good, tricky player, who will possibly try to raise you off it (as I'd probably never put less than a full pot bet in here against a flop CRer with a nut flush - though in that spot if I was the other player I'd probably fold without a flush as I'd be worried about you calling with a set or something trying to draw a boat, possible with some smaller flush on the side), but against this guy it might be the best.

Your big concern then is what to do if/when he calls. Throw good money after bad on the river with another 30-40 bet? Push the rest as a semi-bluff? Check and call to catch a desperation bluff? Check and fold (or hope for a free showdown on the possibility he doesn't have a flush?). I'd probably go for the last option but would then be fairly sick about tossing the 40 in on the turn, only to puss out on the river.

As Ais said, it's a tough spot. I honestly don't feel too bad about checking this turn against a player with CSy tendencies, as I really think a flush is highly likely here, but ultimately if there's any chance he'll bluff (i.e. if he's not totally passive) I like Ais's line more.
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Postby Aisthesis » Sat Mar 10, 2007 12:05 pm

Yeah, the point is well-taken about not making that passive kind of bet against anyone tricky, and I'm not sure about it anyway. But if you check, I guess you're planning on folding if he bets?

Anyhow, here's what I see as his hand range (not necessarily in order of probability):

1) Some kind of two pair or TP with some kind of straight draw but no flush.

2) Straight draw and lower flush draw and yours is still good. On this board something like 6h4h in his hand is going to be a call.

3) Maybe bottom or middle set (although I consider this least likely)

4) TP or 2 pair with some kind of better flush draw than yours (maybe also some kind of gutshot).

I think scenario 4) is definitely in there, but I don't think it happens more than 1/3 of the time. I also think this player will call a passive bet with a 6-high flush pretty often. Surely he'll fold 2 pair to that, although at the $100 (FR on Stars) I've seen them call.

Anyhow, on the line I've suggested (on this particular board, which I think makes a crappy flush also more likely for villain), I think I'd still have to call maybe $30 on the river. I think he's capable of that kind of bet with a worse flush than yours. If it's much more than that, I'm going to give him credit for a bigger flush and fold. If the board pairs, if he bets at all, then I think you're beat.

Also, due to board texture (with your flush being actually pretty strong among hands that have a lot of straight outs), I think that if he does have the flush, it's not much worse than 50:50 that yours is actually better. I think that's the critical assessment here. Otherwise, I'd be willing to go with a check-fold against this type of player.

But I also hate to go with a check-call, although if he's a passive bettor, it might save you money on the times you're beat. But it also gives a free card to 2 pair, which have only 4 outs--but still--, and to little sets, which I consider pretty improbable, but also somewhere in the range nonetheless.

I'll be interested to hear the results on this one. I should also emphasize that I only consider the passive bet legit here against a fairly cally, unimaginative style of player, as it seems this one is.
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Postby Ojingo » Sun Mar 11, 2007 10:01 am

Thanks for the comments; both analyses were pretty accurate. I ended up checking the turn, and he checked behind. River was an offsuit 6, and I bet $40 for value. Villain called with [9s][8s][7h][6h].

I think I got away here indeed because this was a passive opponent, but that against a strong aggressive player I'm folding the best hand quite often because I hate playing for stacks here. Maybe against such player I should just play a smaller pot and simply call the flop?
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Postby Aisthesis » Sun Mar 11, 2007 12:29 pm

I talked with a guy at the casino last night about this hand, and he thought it was a check-fold pretty clearly. I still don't--but agree with your assessment.

I do think I should probably revise my assessment that if he has the flush, you're ahead 50% of the time. There, I think it's more like 1/3. But I do think you're ahead in this hand something like 50%+ (since he also doesn't have a flush a fair amount of the time).

I had one that was a bit similar last night and am going to start a separate thread about situations like this, that happen all the time and are very important.

One other thing regarding the CR: I'd prefer to bet this one out than to CR. I don't think this qualifies as a dominating draw (although a very good one), which would be something like 89TJ with J-high flush draw and others.
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