In my first 1.5K hands of PLO I haven't found myself in lots of positions to to stack people. In fact, I have gotten all in behind as many times as I have ahead, and I am wondering if this is short term variance or bad play. While thinking about that I realized I didn't know the scenarios that make you the most money in PLO.

For example, in NLHE I made > 80% of my winnings with overpairs or sets vs TP or a smaller overpair. In PLO8 I made almost all my money with nut low draw + something good (AA, flush draw, wheel draw, etc.) vs someone who thought naked A2 or top two was the nuts.

For PLO I was assuming that huge draws would make me the most money but so far that hasn't been the case. I keep running into sets in which I might be a small fav or against a hand that blocks a lot of my outs and I end up as a 60/40 dog.

That is a long way of asking: what scenarios make the most money in PLO?

top set and straights with flush redraws

AAxx against maniacs

Yeah, AA is my biggest winner, but that hasn't always been the case. In order to make it work, you also have to be able to lay it down--and not be too predictable about raising it.

On the draws, I'm definitely a fan of betting/pushing under certain conditions. One of the things I've been working on lately is distinguishing between overlay-type draws, which dominate some other holdings a bettor might have and aren't big underdogs to anything, and just good draws, where you have odds to call. You may still want to raise the latter in short-handed pots, where people are often betting weak hands, hence giving you some fold equity.

But I think you really want to get it all in mainly when your RANGE of raising hands is favorite against the range of hands with which the original player bet.

More later, seat just opened up....

First, Stone, I'm amazed that you feel like one of your biggest money winners is nuts with redraw vs. naked nuts. I really feel like I have that situation at best like every few weeks, and I almost never hit my redraw when it does happen. True, it's a theoretically profitable situation--just never seems to happen to me.

I was really glad you raised this question, Goop, as I was thinking about trying to start a thread on exactly this topic, although my ideas are still a little vague.

I think it really boils down to 2 things:

1) Getting lots of money in as favorite, even if just 60-40 or 55-45. Being favorite for stack should still pay off in the long run, even if you're only a small favorite.

2) Getting laydowns from hands that objectively need to call.

These 2 aspects really work together, although they seem at first glance quite different.

A great example is middle set vs. potentially dominating draw. If they have middle set and lay down to your raise on a draw, one or the other of you was small, possibly even fairly big favorite (some dominating draws are fairly sizeable underdogs to any set). But, particularly if the board includes two big cards, middle set still is probably better off laying down because you can have top set OR the draw.

Admittedly, getting the laydowns by raising CAN put you in a position where you're underdog for stack. So, you do have to be careful there.

Also, creating shorthanded pots with position through raising can help you bet weaker hands and still take down a pot. Most .50/1 players are hesitant to call a near pot bet (I've gotten into the habit of betting sub-pot if it's 3-way or HU, then potting the turn if I get a caller and have a hand) without a fairly serious hand in a pot that's big because of your maxi-raise. And you can usually identify those who'll play back at you frivolously and adjust your play accordingly.

Anyhow, my current opinion is this (departing from some over-aggro raising that I've also done with lots of ups and downs): Raise those hands that are dominant over a reasonable number of hands that you expect your opponent to have (particularly if they're dominant over some hands that they'll have to call with) or when you have a decent hand and think there's a good chance that you have some fold equity. Call with other hands (both draws and made hands) that are better than 2:1 to catch up.

Just doing that with fairly solid hand selection seems to beat the $100 tables pretty conssitently anyway.