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Deep OOP no reads awful river.

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Deep OOP no reads awful river.

Postby Xaston » Tue Mar 20, 2007 12:42 pm

Boy, you got me confused with a man who repeats himself.
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Postby black_knight6 » Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:32 pm

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Postby excession » Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:34 pm

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Postby Xaston » Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:37 pm

Boy, you got me confused with a man who repeats himself.
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Postby Stoneburg » Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:43 pm

I think check/fold is a bad idea, check/call (to induce bluffs from busted FD's obviously) or bet/fold (get value from a Q) are the best options. If he bets it's not a block bet, it's a valuebet. $180 looks good.
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Postby black_knight6 » Tue Mar 20, 2007 2:05 pm

Last edited by black_knight6 on Tue Mar 20, 2007 2:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Twelver » Tue Mar 20, 2007 2:17 pm

Mekos King (10:21:59 PM): one of the first rules of manlaw
Mekos King (10:22:06 PM): is never ever try to suck backup to a bitch
Mekos King (10:22:09 PM): who caught u cheatin
Mekos King (10:22:23 PM): unless your married and would lose like money inna divorce
Mekos King (10:22:33 PM): then u suckup just long enuf to get close enough to killer obv

Heat517163 (5:05:37 PM): black people man
Heat517163 (5:05:40 PM): they travel in packs
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Postby Ojingo » Tue Mar 20, 2007 2:39 pm

Is this a strong player? If so, I would expect him to raise you either on the flop or on the turn with a flush draw, especially if you've been playing very laggy. I never expect him to show a set here. If he's this type of player then he may well have a weak made hand like KQ or TT and be hoping you're 3barrelling as usual. In that case I don't think he will bet the river, since he has decent showdown value. If you check and he bets then either he has played his draw deceptively passively, or he has been calling you with what he thinks is the weaker hand but with the intention of moving you off it on the river. But does he really expect you to fold, say, AA in that spot? I'm guessing no, so if he bets out he either has you beat or was calling with virtually nothing with the sole intention of moving you off your hand on the river.

Conclusion: I think that the standard "check to induce bluff" may not be optimal here, since if he bets he's more likely to have a hand than to be bluffing in this particular spot.
Check-fold seems better, unless you have a read that he's capable of calling with air twice only to steal on the river or that he's capable of extremely thin value bets. In case of a more passive opponent, I would advocate the same line but for different reasons: he's more likely to actually have the flush and less likely to bluff since he's passive.
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Postby excession » Tue Mar 20, 2007 2:57 pm

Hmm given Xast's image (I assume he is the sort of player who will fire on all 3 streets) I could see a set of 7's flat calling turn - and of course he also might have hit with 5's on the river - set is the least likely though - I was listing them in descending order of likelihood...

I think if you check you have to call anything up to about a pot-sized bet as repping the flush in position is such a no-brainer- but a blocking bet is going to induce the bluff raise repping the flush from any player who smells weakness.

If villain has hit the flush he will view your check as 'shutting down' and so may bet out a relatively small amount as a value bet.

I hate the river too but think check call is best here unless you have a note that villain never bluffs or something
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Postby droqqa » Tue Mar 20, 2007 3:05 pm

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Postby Zmej » Tue Mar 20, 2007 3:12 pm

I doubt that a good player would play flush draw so passively in position. Assuming that he is not good and not so aggro (aggresive player would raise on flop or turn) I like a block/value bet of about 120. Fold to a raise obviously.

Edit: Didn't notice that Droqqa posted, I agree.
"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Postby ua1176 » Tue Mar 20, 2007 6:28 pm

Last edited by ua1176 on Tue Mar 20, 2007 6:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Devbert » Tue Mar 20, 2007 6:45 pm

"Never cease to be amazed by the depths or excessiveness of human stupidity."
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Postby shamdonk » Tue Mar 20, 2007 7:02 pm

Be glad your opponents refuse to fold; if they didn't, you just might go broke.


(9:00:09 PM) GodlikeRoy: i think you could prolly post total shit for the next 2 years aaaaand like 192 days and you'll still be considered 'posting good' cause of your threads that'll never be seen thread
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Postby Zmej » Wed Mar 21, 2007 2:47 am

CR AI and open shoving are both horrible.
Open fold >open shove.
"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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