by Ojingo » Tue Mar 20, 2007 2:39 pm
Is this a strong player? If so, I would expect him to raise you either on the flop or on the turn with a flush draw, especially if you've been playing very laggy. I never expect him to show a set here. If he's this type of player then he may well have a weak made hand like KQ or TT and be hoping you're 3barrelling as usual. In that case I don't think he will bet the river, since he has decent showdown value. If you check and he bets then either he has played his draw deceptively passively, or he has been calling you with what he thinks is the weaker hand but with the intention of moving you off it on the river. But does he really expect you to fold, say, AA in that spot? I'm guessing no, so if he bets out he either has you beat or was calling with virtually nothing with the sole intention of moving you off your hand on the river.
Conclusion: I think that the standard "check to induce bluff" may not be optimal here, since if he bets he's more likely to have a hand than to be bluffing in this particular spot.
Check-fold seems better, unless you have a read that he's capable of calling with air twice only to steal on the river or that he's capable of extremely thin value bets. In case of a more passive opponent, I would advocate the same line but for different reasons: he's more likely to actually have the flush and less likely to bluff since he's passive.