$100NL 6-max @ FT.

i raise red JJ from EP. Button 3-bets to $12. he's a good/aggressive regular. kinda semi-TAG/semi-LAG....like....i dont know.....24/18/3. i call his 3-bet. in the past he's 3 bet me a few times and i've called and then folded to his CB's. $120-ish effective stacks.

flop: [9h][5d]
pot: $24

i check/call $21.

turn:
pot: $66

i check....he bets $28.

i am sure that he does double-barrel. i am not sure with what frequency or whether his double-barrels are usually this weak.

i am also sure that he's good enough to fold overpairs when he thinks they're beat. i am not sure with what frequency or whether this is the right spot to push him off an overpair.

what do i do? also- thoughts on preflop and flop?

jon

Zmej, do you think the increased fold equity of calling and shoving river offsets the chance you give him to outdraw you?

This is really tough but I'm gonna try to figure it out. I am assuming hero folds when he checks a non-J river and villian shoves.

Drawing Hands (Overcards):

Situation #1: Opponent has AK or AQ (no diamond). CRAI on the turn gets him to fold without letting him outdraw you, which will happen 4/46 times (assuming you can blast him off a the river when a [Kd] or [Ad} hits. 4/46 x $120 is about $10, so you save on average $15 by this play when compared to calling, assuming he won't bluff you off the hand on the river. 2/6 timesSo in this situation, EV of CRAI = +$94, EV of calling with intention to bluff = +$84, EV of folding = +$0. [assuming bluff works]

Situation #2: Opponent has AK or AQ with one diamond. He will hit a non-diamond A or K 5/46 times which will result in him winning the pot. As said above, If river comes A, K, or Q of diamond, you may be able to blast him off the hand in a bluff (probably for the K and Q, maybe the A). EV of CRAI= $94, EV of calling with intetion to bluff +$82, EV of folding =+$0 (assuming bluff works).

Situation #3: Opponent has [Kd] or [Qd]. CRAI on the flop is obviously ideal here, as our bluff on the river will never push out a hand we beat. River bluffing is obvoiusly bad here and a CRAI on the turn or even a check/fold on a diamond river preferred.

Ok, so for overcards, a CRAI on the turn is the most preferred in every situation, though not very much EV is lost using Zmej's bluffing range. The problem with the CRAI is I think you're not getting AA, KK, TT, or 99 to fold on the turn almost ever, and I imagine even QQ calls a lot. So all that EV is lost by the times you get stacked by on the turn. So looking at that, I would say a CRAI on the turn is probably your worst option. You then have to assess how likely you think it is that he's packing, and how likely you can push him off on the river when you bluff (you'll get to bluff with Zmej's range about 1/3 the time). To be honest, without a read I would probably just drop it, but if you think he's capable of both double barreling weakly here and folding an overpair, then Zmej's line is probably best.

Zmej,

You said "on the river we dont know what to do"

I find that

1) When we know this will be the case on the river
2) Theres a good chance we're ahead
3) He might fold a better hand (QQ?) OP did say the guy can fold overpairs.

Its best to CRAI on the turn and put him in the vise that we're in right now. Put the pressure on HIM and make HIM make the big decision.

I personally think theres a good chance the guy has [Kd] type hand. Overcards and flush draw.

I am not sure if we play the same TAG, if I remember correctly you posted some PF stats of about 20/9.

Just for reference some stats that I remember, all 5max.
My PF stats 32/15, postflop agression is mostly even on all streets a bit over 2. WTSD about 25% and Won at SD about 48%. I also play a ton in position. My Button PF stats are like 42/25.

As for the reasons for disagreements I am not sure, we probably need to compare our resonings if we disagree too much on the action.
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Back to the hand, I am not saying that CR Ai on turn is a bad play, we just need to be sure that we'll get called by worse or can make fold the best hand, and it will depend on the range that we assume for the Button .

Edit: I discussed this hand with my friend who plays 5/10NL and higher, he also suggested check/calling turn, but he was against bluffing the river.