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Tough river decision (NL $100 6-Max)

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Tough river decision (NL $100 6-Max)

Postby DoctorHandles » Mon Apr 16, 2007 3:22 pm

Effective stacks $100 no reads on villian.

1. UTG raises to $3, CO calls, I raise OTB to $12, blinds fold, UTG folds, and CO calls.
2. Flop [Qs][9d][4d], pot $28, CO checks I bet $20 and he calls.
3. Turn [8d], pot $68 he checks I check.
4. River [5h], pot $68, CO leads for $55. Hero?

I used to think this was a very trivial call, but is he really gonna show me AQ or KQ [of non-diamonds] enough here to make this call +EV?

The problem is I don't even see what can be bluffing here that I beat. If I do call this and my AA is good, he has to have horribly misplayed a street. This still happen enough at this level to warrent the call?
The better player should win the race. Always.
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Postby k3nt » Mon Apr 16, 2007 3:29 pm

Yeah just because all the draws (JT and diamonds) got there on the turn, it's tough to find many hands you're ahead of. I suppose a weirdly played KK/JJ/TT are possible in addition to AQ/KQ.

There are a ton of donks out there.

I probably call this most of the time, but I think I agree with you, it may be a -EV call over time.
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Postby black_knight6 » Mon Apr 16, 2007 3:46 pm

I call for sure here...the bluff % is so high here, as is him making a semi-bluff (something that he would bet that has showdown value).
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Postby Zmej » Mon Apr 16, 2007 4:05 pm

"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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