by Aisthesis » Sun Apr 29, 2007 5:37 pm
ice, I've been thinking about your suggestions and am somewhat unsure.
One thing I'll mention kind of as an aside: $110 seems unnecessary. Last session I popped a JJ to $60 on one of the $15 raises and got an immediate fold, and same on a 54s, on which I think I just went with $50. My opinion on quantity is basically the lowest you can get by with. If they're a little tougher, yes, $100+ is probably better.
But the main thing I'm not sure about is whether re-raising semi-junk (where AX does have various obvious advantages on the re-raise) or SCs/middle pairs and such is a superior strategy.
The reason is this: On the PPs and SCs you can hit a flop hard but you hit it rarely. True, if you have a 4- or more-way pot, you're still getting fairly nice odds. But what we're definitely NOT dealing with here are players likely to have an AA they can't lay down. More often, they'll make a passive CB or not (and the not may be a trap), and if you fire back they just fold unless they did hit some kind of strong draw.
But they do seem pretty weak PF. And the PPs and SCs have the advantage on the re-raise that they really aren't expecting that from me--and they're prepared (remember the AA on the KQT board) to fire at me if they think the board is scary for my probable AA. I see a lot of advantages there to medium-sized re-raises on hands that can hit big.
The downside, of course, is that I lose the ability to play these hands in the rare case that they themselves are looking at AA or KK. But, since a lot of these guys are "once per orbit" or so raisers, I gain the initiative a very high percentage of the time on potential big hands (if they call at all) where now THEY need to hit their SC or little PP if they see the flop, where they're behind anyway, and where set over set or set vs. unexpected straight or such is also a real possibility.
For example, they raise their 33 to $15 and I re-raise 77. Now I get to CB, and they need to set. But they also (at this point anyway, but if I adopt this strategy, that will certainly change at some point) may try to take it away from me on a flop that looks bad for AA, KK, AK (I think they are definitely aware that I can re-raise AK, as I've done that too often in the past). Anyhow, I feel like the 77 re-raise can have some surprizes in store there while taking down some small to medium pots simply due to having the initiative.
So much for now. And I'm not saying that re-raising junk but calling with SCs or PPs isn't better in the Winstar game. But it feels to me like re-raising them often might work better the way the current game is playing up here.
I probably won't have much testing opportunity until I get back from Vegas, but those are my current thoughts and questions anyway.