by Stoneburg » Thu May 31, 2007 5:57 am
I have never and will probably never fold AAxx preflop in PLO high (I have and do fold it in PLO8).
Theoretically there is exactly one situation where you should fold it as fasr as I know, and that is if it's a 3-way pot and you're sure at least one other player has AA and the third has a medium or low wrap hand. In that scenario your AA is actually -EV.
However, not only are these situations very rare, it's also very hard to know for sure that you're in one of them and avoid making a huge mistake like folding and finding out you were up against KKxx and AKQJ making you a big favorite.
Even a really bad AAxx hand is not far behind a very good one, so with the dead money that is usually in the pot together with the money you put in to find out what you're up against, you usually have a positive expectation to continue in the hand.
Example of when to (possibly) fold:
You're in MP and raise pot with AA83 rainbow for some reason. An aggressive and competent player behind you calls, and a true rock behind him re-raises. Now you KNOW the rock won't re-raise with anything less than AA, and you have the worst possible AA so obviously he is a favorite over you. Also, the competent player behind you most likely has a hand that will be an equity favorite 3-ways against two AA hands,so although you have the current "nuts", you're actually worst off of all three.
Stack depth also comes into effect here. If you're deep, you're fucked. You can't get it all-in now and you're unlikely to get any help from the flop, so you will be playing a raised pot out of position against at least one competent and aggressive player who has an undefined hand. You will basically be forced to check/fold the vast majority of flops and as such might as well just dump the hand now and save yourself the money and the headache.
If stacks are short enough that you can get it all-in now or on the flop, any mistake you make will be relatively small so you can continue, but if calling the re-raise leaves you with more than 70% of your stack intact, I'd suggest dumping.
Of course this is such a rare occurance where you will fold AA that how you play the istuation is unlikely to effect your winrate.