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"Killer Poker By The Numbers" by Tony Guerrera

Postby MTPaid » Wed May 30, 2007 6:37 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

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"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby Marm » Fri Jun 01, 2007 12:12 pm

"Rooting for the Yankees is like rooting for the house in blackjack." -Adam Morrow

I swear to God, next time I have to come back here, I'm bringing a stun gun and a weedwacker!
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Postby MTPaid » Fri Jun 01, 2007 2:44 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby Beavis68 » Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:11 am

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Postby MTPaid » Sat Jun 02, 2007 5:18 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby Beavis68 » Sat Jun 02, 2007 9:21 pm

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Postby MTPaid » Sat Jun 02, 2007 11:32 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MTPaid » Sun Jun 03, 2007 5:02 pm

Ok, you asked for it Beavis. Maybe it's just the phenominal effort it seems to get to the answer in each case, but here ya go....and this is actually gonna be the short version.

The example he gives (and once you understand what he's doing, you can change the cards to fit your situation) is that you raise with JJ and get 2 callers.

He puts those callers on a range [JJ,22] [AK,AJ] [KQ]. (That's not the range I'd put most people on, that's certainly not my calling range and I probably wouldn't put both callers on the same range, but I won't argue this because again, once you understand, you can change to suit your needs)

He gives us 2 flops:
AA3 and 553

The equation he then gives is the % that 1st caller is ahead or P(P1_ahead)
plus the % that P(P1_not ahead)
multiplied by % that the 2nd caller is ahead or P(P2_ahead)

P(P1_ahead)+P(P1_not ahead)P(P2_ahead)=P(beaten)

He figures out that with that range of hands the answers for the 1st 2 parts of that equation are .26 and of course .74 so we have

.26 + .74 x P(P2_ahead) = P(beaten)

Now this is where it gets tiresome.

If we know that P1 doesn't have you beaten (because it really doesn't matter what P2 has if your already beaten by P1) we have to lessen his range to only those hands in that range that don't beat you and then figure out the probability that P2 is holding each of those hands based on what P1 could possibly hold. Please don't ask me to go into the calculations. It's a LOT of effort. For me at least.

Then to figure out for more than 2 opponents, he uses something called and independence approximation that can be found by the equation:

P(beaten) = 1 - (1 - .26)" = 1 - .74"

The quotes reference that this is an approximation and I have no idea how that equation comes about even though he tries to explain it afterward.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby kennyg » Sun Jun 03, 2007 5:07 pm

"I'll take KennyGs advice before Sklanskys every time. "
-Iceman

Proud contributing member of the Poker Player's Alliance.
Poker Journal:
forum/viewtopic.php?p=14017#14017
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Postby Beavis68 » Sun Jun 03, 2007 8:53 pm

I need to remember to come back to this tomorrow - probably at work when I am on a break (which is about 6 hours a day).
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Postby Beavis68 » Mon Jun 04, 2007 4:44 pm

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Postby MTPaid » Mon Jun 04, 2007 10:54 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby Schuster » Tue Jun 05, 2007 1:03 am

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Postby Schuster » Tue Jun 05, 2007 7:44 pm

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Postby MTPaid » Tue Jun 05, 2007 8:54 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
User avatar
MTPaid
 
Posts: 3681
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:42 am
Location: New Jersey

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