OK simple scenario

You are shortish stacked - say 60BB
Villains cover you.

You are in BB with J9o

EP min raises, this is called by Button, and SB, you put 1 BB in to complete. (Pot is 8BB)

Flop is T82 rainbow giving you OESD.

You bet the pot (8BB)

EP raises you to 20BB.

Button and SB fold.

You have put 10BB in. You have 50BB left.

Without running the figures what sort of fold equity does your gut tell you a push has to have to make it +EV over a fold?

And against a vanilla opponent whatwould you do (again assuming no time to run figures)

my gut tells me call > push/fold. my gut also tells me that I wouldn't bet this flop, i think, but i'm not sure as i don't have much experience playing as a 60 BB stack.

you are around 2:1 to hit your hand, you will be getting around 1.5:1 on your money when he calls. without actually running the number I think it is 33% is enough.


BTW, I did the math and I get you need about 21% FE to be break even (using 33% equity if called which I didnt validate).

Actually Beavis is right - the maths are a little off as I was treating the loss if you pushed and got called and missed as -50BB.

It would be an additional 50BB but you already have 10BB in so the overall loss for the hand would be 60BB (as opposed to 10BB if you fold).

This makes the tipping point where push is better than fold at 20% fold equity and the absolute profit point (where the push is +EV ratehr than just being not as bad as the 10BB lost when you fold) at 43% Fold Equity.

I'll post the spreadsheet wehn I get home and will have a play with factoring calls into it.