[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/functions.php on line 4783: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at [ROOT]/includes/functions.php:3888)
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/functions.php on line 4785: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at [ROOT]/includes/functions.php:3888)
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/functions.php on line 4786: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at [ROOT]/includes/functions.php:3888)
[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/includes/functions.php on line 4787: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at [ROOT]/includes/functions.php:3888)
Pushing the draws - how good is your 'gut'? - Live Poker Forums

Advanced search

Pushing the draws - how good is your 'gut'?

Hand analysis. Post your trouble hands here

Moderators: iceman5, LPF Police Department

How often must the villain fold to a push for it to be +EV?

It doesn't matter - pushing is always +EV ie 0%
0
No votes
10% folding will be enough
4
21%
33% folding is needed
15
79%
75% or higher
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 19

Pushing the draws - how good is your 'gut'?

Postby excession » Wed Jun 13, 2007 10:24 am

OK simple scenario

You are shortish stacked - say 60BB
Villains cover you.

You are in BB with J9o

EP min raises, this is called by Button, and SB, you put 1 BB in to complete. (Pot is 8BB)

Flop is T82 rainbow giving you OESD.

You bet the pot (8BB)

EP raises you to 20BB.

Button and SB fold.

You have put 10BB in. You have 50BB left.

Without running the figures what sort of fold equity does your gut tell you a push has to have to make it +EV over a fold?

And against a vanilla opponent whatwould you do (again assuming no time to run figures)
User avatar
excession
Enthusiast (Online)
 
Posts: 3872
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 3:52 pm
Location: manchester uk

Postby GodlikeRoy » Wed Jun 13, 2007 10:29 am

my gut tells me call > push/fold. my gut also tells me that I wouldn't bet this flop, i think, but i'm not sure as i don't have much experience playing as a 60 BB stack.
Poker is silly.

It is not enough to be good at chess, you must also play well.

Somewhere in the world someone is training when you are not. When you race him, he will win.

User avatar
GodlikeRoy
 
Posts: 7430
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:43 am

Postby black_knight6 » Wed Jun 13, 2007 11:58 am

User avatar
black_knight6
Semi Pro (Online)
 
Posts: 10012
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2005 11:51 am
Location: Victoria BC

Postby shamdonk » Wed Jun 13, 2007 12:09 pm

Be glad your opponents refuse to fold; if they didn't, you just might go broke.


(9:00:09 PM) GodlikeRoy: i think you could prolly post total shit for the next 2 years aaaaand like 192 days and you'll still be considered 'posting good' cause of your threads that'll never be seen thread
User avatar
shamdonk
 
Posts: 4279
Joined: Sat Mar 26, 2005 1:16 pm
Location: amherst, MA

Postby black_knight6 » Wed Jun 13, 2007 12:10 pm

User avatar
black_knight6
Semi Pro (Online)
 
Posts: 10012
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2005 11:51 am
Location: Victoria BC

Postby k3nt » Wed Jun 13, 2007 12:13 pm

User avatar
k3nt
Enthusiast (Online)
 
Posts: 6710
Joined: Tue Nov 16, 2004 12:27 pm

Postby Beavis68 » Wed Jun 13, 2007 12:39 pm

you are around 2:1 to hit your hand, you will be getting around 1.5:1 on your money when he calls. without actually running the number I think it is 33% is enough.


BTW, I did the math and I get you need about 21% FE to be break even (using 33% equity if called which I didnt validate).
User avatar
Beavis68
 
Posts: 3568
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:43 pm
Location: double secret probation

Postby Rhound50 » Wed Jun 13, 2007 4:57 pm

"Its a pink handbag not backpack damn it." Godlikeroy

"From playing full tilt I wanna smash every garden gnome I see. That travelocity commercial puts me on instant tilt."
User avatar
Rhound50
Semi Pro (B&M & Online)
 
Posts: 7304
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:15 am
Location: La Jolla, Ca

Postby excession » Wed Jun 13, 2007 6:17 pm

Last edited by excession on Thu Jun 14, 2007 2:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
excession
Enthusiast (Online)
 
Posts: 3872
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 3:52 pm
Location: manchester uk

Postby Triple B » Wed Jun 13, 2007 7:12 pm

User avatar
Triple B
 
Posts: 3242
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:36 am

Postby Beavis68 » Wed Jun 13, 2007 9:50 pm

User avatar
Beavis68
 
Posts: 3568
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:43 pm
Location: double secret probation

Postby excession » Thu Jun 14, 2007 2:36 am

User avatar
excession
Enthusiast (Online)
 
Posts: 3872
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 3:52 pm
Location: manchester uk

Postby Stoneburg » Thu Jun 14, 2007 2:47 am

Image
User avatar
Stoneburg
 
Posts: 5931
Joined: Mon May 09, 2005 9:03 pm
Location: Sweden

Postby excession » Thu Jun 14, 2007 6:11 am

Actually Beavis is right - the maths are a little off as I was treating the loss if you pushed and got called and missed as -50BB.

It would be an additional 50BB but you already have 10BB in so the overall loss for the hand would be 60BB (as opposed to 10BB if you fold).

This makes the tipping point where push is better than fold at 20% fold equity and the absolute profit point (where the push is +EV ratehr than just being not as bad as the 10BB lost when you fold) at 43% Fold Equity.

I'll post the spreadsheet wehn I get home and will have a play with factoring calls into it.
User avatar
excession
Enthusiast (Online)
 
Posts: 3872
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 3:52 pm
Location: manchester uk

Postby Triple B » Thu Jun 14, 2007 9:54 am

User avatar
Triple B
 
Posts: 3242
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:36 am

Next

Return to No Limit Hold'em Cash Games

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests