I appreciate you can never really know for sure how many outs you have - to take the downside if he has a set your outs are no good if the board pairs etc.

I guess you just fudge a little and if you think he might call with a hand you have more outs against more often than one you have less against fudge the number upwards a little.

I have had another go at the spreadsheet. I just need to upload it properly when I get home but for now you can grab it at
http://www.uploadwiz.com/WIZ4581961874


I've tidied it up and you now have to input the following 7 variables:

Easy ones
Effective Stack Size (smallest of you and villian)
Dead Money (in pot not from you or villain)
Loss if fold (the amount of money you have in the pot already)
The Big Blind in $ (needed for checking capped rake assuming $3 cap)
Amount to call villain's raise (if applicable)

And the trickier ones
Estimated outs (adjusted as above if needed)
Estimate of the % of the villains stack you will get if you call and hit turn

The only flaw I can see at the moment is that sometimes the villain won't push you off if you call and miss and you will hit on river. I have no idea how to factor that in other than to note that this means the EV for calls is a little low.

It should be able to analyse HU type situations on the flop - particularly draws.

I hope playing with it is going to be interesting and informative and that someone far better than me at maths (like Beavis) vets the functions to verify its ok.

it's not 17% it's 25% - you'll never get that high so the push is worst - looks on these figures that the call is marginally wosre than the fold..but if you can justify that he will never slow down if you hit then the call will be better

here is the original problem with figures plugged in to balance out the EV's - assuming 25% fold equity (which I think is too high for the actual case - I figure 10% max to be honest) and you getting on average 85% of your stack in against villain if you call and hit...



the spreadsheet itself can be downloaded here
http://www.andymcnish.net/book2.xls