History hand:

Villian is 29/13/2.3 over 200 hands and he hasn't done anything out of order in either direction.

I have 440, he has 500. JJ in CO 5 handed and I open to 16 only villian OTB calls.

Flop 833r. I CB 28 and he makes it 70...Yeti theorem: he doesn't have 88 or a 3 here (3 is out given his stats AND Yeti)...I think for a few seconds and make it 225...he tanks and folds.

I got the distinct impression he was pissed with me. I hadn't been at the table long and I was pretty active (good cards, no showdowns).

The Hand:

2 hands later in BB, villian UTG opens to 15, folds to me with black AA and I overbet my 3 bet to 71 trying to make it look like I'm stealing. He calls.

Flop [2c][5d]...I...CHECK. I really want it to look like I was stealing and then am too scared to pull the trigger...he fires 70 flat, and I have to decide how to get my chips in. Min raise is possible, but I elect for 160...he pushes, I insta call.

He had AJo no draw...nihan sir-tilts-a-lot.

NH. I often make the same play as you with hand 1.

I don't really like the raise in hand 1. Why not call and let him bluff off his stack?

You're also mis using the Yeti theorem. It states: A 3 bet by the preflop raiser in position on a dry (preferably paired) board, is always air.

While you're correct that THAT is the 'yeti' theorem...I think villian, in position, never raises here with 88 or a 3...

I don't call because I can't check the turn and risk the free card...