This is something that has been bugging me for a while, but I havent' tried figuring it out.

Suppose you have a very strong hand (typically set or straight) on the turn and think your opponent is drawing. There's also not huge stack-depth left, but enough that a bet on your part isn't necessarily all-in.

Let's just say the turn pot is $500 before any bets are made, the board is K567 with 2 spades, and you have 89 with no spades. There's also, let's say, $750 in available stack-depth left.

First off, the minimum I would even think about betting here is about $300, and all-in is also possible. You think your opponent is probably on a flush draw, but he might also have a set or 2 pair.

Anyhow, if you bet $300 and get called, the river pot is now $1100, and it will cost you $450 if he pushes (for a chance at $1,550). My first assumption here is that your hand is sufficiently strong that you pretty much still have to call, even if you think he made his flush. He must have a flush more than 75% of the time for you to think about folding, so it's a tough fold against almost anyone imo.

My question is: What should you bet?

Well, I'll have to continue later, as an Omaha seat just opened up, but I wanted to get this started.

Before answering, Id like to know how the pot got that big after only 2 streets in a 2/5 game. This makes a big difference in my answer.

Well, let's say I limped with 98 in MP, LP raised to $25 and got 3 callers, including me, making a flop pot of 100.

Flop comes K76 with 2 spades (that I don't have), and I bet 75 at the raiser, who makes it 200. I call, and the other player folds.

Turn is non-spade 5.

I guess in that case, you're probably looking more than likely at AK or maybe KQ, but KK is possible, 77 or 66 (less likely no doubt, but still) and some kind of suited A in spades, and even 76. I think we can view this raiser as pretty loose to keep things in the spirit of the original idea and keep all of these options open as real. And, in the same vein, we can assume that he'll bluff a fair amount of the time on rivers where you're still good. But let's say he's fairly clever about that--he'll obviously alwasy push the river when he's good, but he'll only bluff sometimes when he's not. He'll be pretty likely to bet KK anyway even in the face of the flush if you check to him on the river, and he might also bet something like AK with naked As as well as of course any actual flush.

Hmmmm... I don't know the answer to that one.

I think the average decent player probably doesn't calculate odds exactly but does view 400 as "bigger," hence worse odds. I think they're probably a little less inclined to call.

In the particular situation, I also think they'll give themselves an implied odds bonus because they'll figure the river does have to be a call. But the whole thing is very player dependent. I think the whole calculation is only relevant against a certain kind of LAG.