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Profitable spots on the bubble

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Profitable spots on the bubble

Postby EscapePlan9 » Thu Jul 12, 2007 5:47 am

When you are a big stack on the bubble you have many possibilities to further increase your stack while decreasing theirs, so by the time you make it ITM you're way ahead.

Three examples from a recent SNG I played:

Hand 1
Blinds 250/500
UTG 1500
BTN 3500
SB (me) 5000
BB 1000

UTG folds, BTN raises to 1400. I have [9h] [4d] and shove all-in.

BTN's raise tells you "I have a decent hand and will take it all-in against the short-stack, but if big-stack picks up a monster, I can still fold". He will fold here roughly 95% of the time. On the off-chance he doesn't, you still will be ahead of the shorties if you lose, and you can still win the all-in. I re-shove in this situation 100% of the time, adding another 2000 chips to my stack and taking a big chunk out of BTN's stack.

After that, I shove any two cards until someone's eliminated.

Hand 2
Blinds 250/500
UTG (me) 7500
BTN 750
SB 2000
BB 1500

I pick up the monstrous [7s] [3c] and shove all-in. This is the perfect spot since if BTN folds, SB and BB will be folding like 98% of the time. If BTN calls, I probably just have to win a 40/60 and it's only a small loss for me if I lose. Then I can continue making +EV shoves again.

Hand 3
Shorty goes all-in UTG (same price as BB), donkey limps along, I have [9s] [7d] and shove. BB folds, donkey folds. Shorty has 55 and I spiked a 9 on the turn to take it down.

Once again, the donkey limp there tells you he will fold very often. Even when your hand stinks like 9-high, it's very profitable to shove here. Shorty is on an extremely wide range of hands, and if he doubles up, so what? You still have a HUGE stack and everyone else is short. If you beat shorty with the all-in, you have an even larger stack to take with you ITM.

What happened in that SNG was ITM stacks looked like this:
Blinds 250/500
(me) 11900
SB 1100
BB 750

It wasn't very hard to get 1st here :)

These types of plays are especially important in turbos where ITM and HU play often comes down to luck of the cards because of the insanely huge blinds. Your advantage ITM/HU then comes from having a bigger stack and taking the +EV spots.
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Postby SngPlayer » Thu Jul 12, 2007 5:17 pm

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Postby EscapePlan9 » Thu Jul 12, 2007 5:20 pm

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Postby EscapePlan9 » Thu Jul 12, 2007 5:24 pm

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Postby m9man » Mon Jul 16, 2007 10:53 am

the button shouldve gone all in right (hand 1) i mean he has 7x bb? for all the reasons we know, but also to prevent a re-raise steal attempt
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Postby EscapePlan9 » Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:22 pm

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Postby DaFish » Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:42 pm

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Postby m9man » Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:42 pm

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Postby EscapePlan9 » Mon Jul 16, 2007 2:47 pm

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Postby EscapePlan9 » Mon Jul 16, 2007 2:52 pm

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Postby DaFish » Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:37 am

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Postby Henderson121 » Mon Jul 23, 2007 11:45 am

I understand and completely agree with being aggro with the chip lead on the bubble of a SNG. Having said that, you need to be a bit more selective. Your shoving your 5k stack into a 3500 stack who if he has a hand you are completely fucked. You have absolutely nothing to stack up against a big pair. I like the aggressive mindset but you need to be doing this with suited connectors and other stuff. I know a lot of people might say that cards dont matter in this spot and to an extent that is true but do you really want to be playing 73 against KK? I think that is just absurd.
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Postby emmasdad » Mon Jul 23, 2007 12:15 pm

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Postby EscapePlan9 » Mon Jul 23, 2007 1:10 pm

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Postby Henderson121 » Mon Jul 23, 2007 4:17 pm

You also have to realize that a lot of people arnt just ROI based as you would think. A lot of people play SnGs for fun and have the mindset of "I want to win" in which case they will stack off with a small/mid pp in hopes of winning a coinflip and getting the chip lead. You also have to take into consideration a short stack to your left, who very well may be playing correctly, now has a great price to stick their money in and you will not be in a good position to compete with 73. IMO, I would use this strategy moreso in MTT's where late in the game survial is very important. In a SnG if they are good at all they will pick up on this and call with a hand that beast your "range" and then your stuck in a bad position to win and not only that to give a shortie the chip lead.

I'm primarily a cash game and MTT player, I really only play SnGs nowadays when they are satellites but I played them a lot when i first started playing online and I lived by the mantra that it is always better to be the first one in the pot unless you have a read and/or theres no action behind you other than the original raiser.

Just my two cents...prolly not worth much but I give it anyway
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