If anyone feels like watching - 151 players left at 3rd break

I've got 50k chips - 53rd overall

I probably end up calling with the JJ hand, having a third of my stack involved... dunno if that's +EV though.

The fold with JJ must have been one of the worst folds ever (sorry starstealer).
Without antes there are 71K in the pot. It's 32K for you to call. You need to win less than 1 out of 3 to make the call EV. Even if this player is very tight and will only reraise with AA-QQ + AK you still win 36% of the times.

This is on the bubble and he is BB - there are no players behind him. I think he will make this reraise with a lot of hands. Let's say AA-99, AK-AQ. Now it's a coinflip.
If we include 88-66, AJ-AT + KQ you win 59% of the time.

You shouldnt raise 3xBB with JJ with less than 10xBB in your stack, when you are going to fold to a push from the big blind.

The AK hand is a very easy push. You got your money in as a big favourite when you were short stack.

That was pretty much my thoughts Kalle, that if you thought you would fold to a push, then a limp given your position is better. I rarely make the min raise in cash games, but seen from first to act either play can be interepted as AA when the blinds are big so that may be an valid option as well. It gives you cleaner exit strategy for less money, or allows your opponent to make a reasonable raise and you can take a flop, or if he makes an unreasnable raise you can fold.

Well, I've never claimed to be the best player - and that's why I post the tough hands. For me, making it to the money in a tournament is a big deal. In the JJ incident, I was already in the money, but I was about to make a jump in the cash, which would bring my net profit from +20 to +55 or so.

You are right however, that if I can narrow down his hands to just AA-QQ plus AK, then I am still justified in making the call based on odds.

Like I said - it was a tough decision for me at the time - hopefully I won't make that mistake the next time.

/d

Yes, but look at it from the perspective I was in:

His range (to me) was AA, KK, QQ, AK or AQs. In three situations I'm going home a significant portion of the time, in the other 3 (AKs, AKo, AQs), I have a 50% chance of doubling up.

While it might be difficult to get to the real money with 8xbb, it is impossible to do so with no stack whatsoever.

In this case, while I may have had the odds to make the call correct, in terms of tournament survival, I'm not sure I really like the situation at all.

(And don't worry about sounding like an ass - I've got a very thick skin...)

/d