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Bottom set on Flush board [600 5H] - Live Poker Forums

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Bottom set on Flush board [600 5H]

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Bottom set on Flush board [600 5H]

Postby Electrolux » Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:59 am

Folded to me OTB, and I raise to 15 (Mistake! I played a few 2/4 tables to, and mixed up bet sizes). I have [2d][2s] and a 575 stack.

BB calls, he is 22/10 after some 200 hands. He has a 1900 stack

Flop [2h] [[Ts] [Jh] (33)
He leads 25, I raise to 75, he calls.

Turn [9h] (183)
He checks?

Who checks behind here?

I didn't. I bet 115, and he pushed.
It is 370 in a 783 pot to me. Call or fold?
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Postby dennerman » Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:43 am

That [9h] is the worst card to hit on the turn, you're very likely beat. At this point I'd be asking myself what hands he could have and how many of them do I have beat. He didn't re-raise you pre-flop, but with no one else in the hand at that point he didn't have to even if he had AA or KK, so those are still possible holdings. He could really have a lot of things, TJ, AJ, TT, KQ, 9Th, 89h, ATh, all seem likely.

So where does that leave you, you're ahead of AA, KK, TJ, AJ and behind TT, KQ, 9Th, 89h, and ATh. In the absence of any other information about the player this is probably a fold. He knows you have a good hand and have already invested a lot in the pot so you're likely to call his all-in bet. I think that's what he wants, he's hoping to get all your chips in now while you still might be willing to do it. If he just called your raise you're probably done with the hand anyway so he might as well shoot for the whole stack now.

Once that terrible turn card landed I'd probably check the turn hoping for the board to pair. He'll likely fire a bet on the river no matter what card lands and you'd have to decide how much you're willing to call for. If you still feel you might be winning then maybe you call a small to medium bet on the river and fold to any huge move. In fact, if his river bet was $100 then you'd get to showdown with the same amount you bet now anyway. Giving him that last card for free sucks, but the turn card probably made his hand anyway.

One last thing, with so much draw potential on the flop you probably want to make a bigger bet with bottom set. Make it easy for him to lay it down. He had to call $50 into a $133 pot so he's getting 2.5 to 1 odds. Not correct pot odds for a flush or straight, but if he has a piece of the board and one of these draws, or if he's a loose player hoping for the implied odds of your whole stack, then that's not too hard a call to make.
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Postby GodlikeRoy » Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:18 am

Poker is silly.

It is not enough to be good at chess, you must also play well.

Somewhere in the world someone is training when you are not. When you race him, he will win.

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Postby geiststaat » Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:01 am

"A big day in my career was the day I realized that tomorrow I would still be a tilter." -- Tommy Angelo
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Postby GodlikeRoy » Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:19 am

Poker is silly.

It is not enough to be good at chess, you must also play well.

Somewhere in the world someone is training when you are not. When you race him, he will win.

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Postby DoctorHandles » Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:18 pm

Everything Roy said.

Also I like a turn bet, almost every card in the deck is gonna be bad for you on the river, or at least kill you action if he has like JQ.
The better player should win the race. Always.
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Postby Electrolux » Wed Jul 18, 2007 3:33 am

thanks for the input.
I realize that I make the mistake of re-rairsing too small in these kind of spots not protecting my hand.

Well I called. He had [Ah][Kh], but I spiked an extra 9 to boat up.

I wonder if I should make a bigger bet on the turn, to make it an clear call, i.e., I have odds even vs a made flush, or just check behind.
- Mexicans are filthy. I once blew a Mexican. I had diarrhea for a week. Sarah Silverman

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Postby Devbert » Wed Jul 18, 2007 6:30 pm

"Never cease to be amazed by the depths or excessiveness of human stupidity."
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