I dunno, FR at the 100 or 200 button is going to have KK very often here.

But... it's a 3-way pot with a bad player in and you lead into the raiser, which to my mind makes KK significantly less frequent, plus you have a K.

Ok, so he has KK some percentage of the time, then maybe 689T a fair amount, to which you should be 60-40 favorite, maybe AA89 some other percentage.

Let's say you're roughly 2:1 favorite against everything except KK (and I think he can also have 66 here sometimes, too).

Fold to the raise is EV 0. Otherwise, you're risking 375 for a chance at maybe 500, maybe even 1200. SB's call makes the wrap also a little less likely. Difficult... I don't think the push is very big +EV but it probably is a little on the plus side.

If you do 3bet, I think you clearly call a push for only 100 more.

Sorry, edited to show that it's 3/6 not 2/4 so we have a bit more in our stacks - not that I think this really makes much of a difference.

Hmmmm... I think it does make a difference on the EV, which maybe I can do before my seat becomes available.

Ok, you're now risking $575 for $700 if SB folds and $575 for $1,800 if SB calls. On the bright side, if SB calls, I think they take away a fair number of one another's outs if both have wraps, so you're probably better than 2:1 to win against 2 wraps.

Well, seat just opened up, but I think I may be able to do half of what I was intending:

Let's say SB folds.

Button has KK some percent p and you lose let's say always. The other percentage you win roughly 60% of the time, and you need to be something like 1.2:1 underdog overall to make this play--somewhere around 55-45 underdog.

So, we need p + (1-p)*.4 < .45 iff .4 + .6*p < .45 iff p < 10% roughly.

I think it gets a lot better if SB calls, but I'm not sure you can say he has KK < 10% of the time. I do think the other percentage he's going to have a decent wrap almost always if he plays for stack (you no doubt have SOME fold equity surely on some hands here, so that also helps).

Let me add something. If the 3-6 games play like those on UB, then the basic policy should be to stack off with any set on such board for 100bb, barring great reads. Obviously if you have a lower set you prefer to have some kind of backup (with 6689 I wouldn't hesitate), but still I think you will get run over if you start routinely folding hands like that in aggressive games where people will felt with hands like overpair plus draw, two pair plus gutshot, etc.

Now that means that (again barring a big read) that in principle you don't mind playing for stacks here. However, that doesn't mean that a 3bet is necessarily the best play on the flop, because there is a decent chance he is taking the lead with, say, a mediocre draw, or is testing the waters with some two pair type of hand. 3betting may make him lose his confidence in the hand. This being an unraised pot and the pot relatively small compared to stack sizes, there is some room for maneuvre here, and there is an argument to be made for a flat call. Then you can lead any straightening turn card, or CRAI on a blank, extracting the maximum from semibluffs, weak made hands who think they should protect against a draw, etc.