Just because I usually post hands that look like I'm paranoid and searching for monsters under the bed, I felt like I had to post this hand to show you the other side. Those weak paranoid hands are just usually the hands I post because I'm unsure of them.
Here, I have read him for a draw and played more aggressively. Opponent is 40/8/23 with solid post-flop aggression (2.0) over 168 hands, mostly from another session.
7-handed
OTB
[Kd] $50
UTG min-raises to $1 ($78.75 behind)
I re-raise to $3.75
Blinds fold, UTG calls
[3s][2s] Pot $8
UTG bets $4, I raise to $12.50, he calls
(I think he's on a draw)
Pot $32 (I have $33.75 left)
UTG checks, I fire a 2nd barrel for $17.50, UTG takes all his time and calls.
Pot $68.25
UTG bets $17 (I have $16.25 left)
Now I only have A-hi, but my thought process is that if he had a set or a monster he would have c/r'ed on the turn. If he just had a pair, he is probably afraid of a bigger pair and most likely wants to get to showdown cheap. How likely is it that he's bluffing here? I'm getting 5 to 1. Tell me that I'm absolutely insane if I call.