Im not sure you guys understand the odds / math of shortstacking.

If he showed me his AK / AQ / QJ I HAVE to shove in. It doesnt matter if its a "coin flip". Im about a 56-57% favorite over overcards. Theres also dead money in the pot.

Shortstacking is about getting all in as a small favorite as many times as you can.

Yes, there are people behindme, but they dont have a bigger pair than me, so they can come along if they want. That just adds to me EV.

The only question is does the SB raise to 26BBs in this spot with AA-KK? And if he does, what percentage of the time does he do it and is that percentage enough to outweigh my 57-43 advatange when he has overcards (or shit like 98s) and is trying to buy the pot.

I hear what you're saying about the short stacking, but if you ask the question, "The only question is does the SB raise to 26BBs in this spot with AA-JJ" then I think the answer is, "often." If we put his hand range at AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,99,AKs, and I think 99 and AKs are a less likely than the others, then I'd conclude that the majority of the time you're in this situation you're an 80-20 dog.

Let's even say that it's more often, but not a dominating amount of time. Let's say 75% of the time he has an overpair and 25% of the time you have an edge. Let's even give credit to the fact that he might be a little LAG and make this move with an underpair once in a while, so your 6% edge against overcards might even be better on the whole. Using a total guesstimate since I have to leave for work in a sec, let's give you: 25% of the time you have an average of a 15% edge. I still see that as -EV (I haven't done the math so correct me if I'm wrong.)

Anyways, that's the way I'd see the hand. Maybe you shove and he turns over 88 and you kill him. Or maybe he flips over AK and made his big bet figuring there's enough money in the pot to make his hand profitable agaisnt a big underpair that might call, especially with the fold equity he gets by making a big move. I saw a guy do exactly that once at the Borgata, a King came on the flop and he and the one caller he got went all in. The only person who called him ends up turning over AA when it was all done. We were all dumbstruck that this guy didn't re-raise with AA pre-flop. But he took home a pile of dough anyway.

I'm with iceman here.

I don't think a AA or KK would raise this high (QQ unsure). Seems more like the SB pulled the roll bar to a value he was pretty sure nobody would call.
With the big pockets his bet would more likely be around 120-140$ making it 180$.
That would be enough to shrink it to only one caller (max).

We agree that ice's limp was really bad. But that gave him a big opportunity afterwards because nobody would expect an early limper to have pocket tens!

His range is more likely AK,JJ-99, leaning towards AK which gives us 6 hands with 80%, 17 hands with 54% and at least 6 hands with 20%. So a call isn't that bad I think.

Please don't kill me for that. The transatlantic relationship is already strained

You do not know he's unpaired. If he was it's an obvious call/push, but there is also a good chance he's got JJ+ and has you in deep chit. You only have $10 in there, there are better spots than this one (one that you put yourself in, you know this).

If I was shortstacking I would not be CALLING marginal situations, I'd be pushing them, because the additional EV of fold equity added to my coin flips makes it a profitable move. But he's NOT folding.

Calling an essential shove (both are pot committed if this plays out) is for stronger hands than TT.

JC

After thinking more about it, my personal opinion is that he will have.

JJ maybe...... 10%
99 or lower... 40%
Big ace..........40%
garbage........5%
AA-QQ..........5%

Of course Ionly had like 15 seconds to think about it at the time and cant remember ever seeing a raise that big at these stakes.

I dont know how to figure my EV against that range.