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Does the Q-spades make this a call? ($50FR) - Live Poker Forums

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Does the Q-spades make this a call? ($50FR)

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Does the Q-spades make this a call? ($50FR)

Postby MTPaid » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:55 pm

Only about 2 orbits at the table. Opponent seems loose, has had trouble folding so far.

[Ah][Qs] SB ($40.50) 8-handed
2 folds, MP1 ($46.90) min-raises to $1, 3 folds, I re-raise to $3.50, BB folds, MP1 calls

[As][Js][6c] Pot $7.50
I bet $5, MP1 calls

[5s] Pot $17.50
I bet $8, MP1 is all-in for $38.90 (I only have $24.50 left)

Does the [Qs] in my hand make this a definite call? I'm getting 2.3 to 1 and I may even be ahead.
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Postby Mr Sauceman » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:56 pm

I dont like a call here...lets look at what he could have

1-Flush with [Ks] - drawing dead

2-Flush without [Ks] - you have 7 outs about 5.5 to 1

3-Aces up - 3 more outs to give you about 3.9 to 1

The only thing you are beating here is a weak ace or a bluff. I dont think he is going to pull this move often with just the [Ks] and a pair. Id say you are ahead only about 10-15% of the time and he still has outs.

IMO at this level not many people are capable of making a move like this without a hand way ahead of yours.
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Postby MTPaid » Sat Aug 18, 2007 4:14 pm

I don't think he has the [Ks] with the flush. Typical min-raises are usually either pocket pairs or suited connectors, at least in my experience. Since he can't have [As] - [Qs] - or even [Js], I don't see him having the [Ks] there very often unless he had pocket Kings, but in that case he's probably raising me again preflop.

He seems to have had trouble folding in the short time that I've observed him which means that a medium/large pocket pair (88-TT) with a spade is possible as well as a set or (JJ/66), or a smaller flush. Also the slight possibility that it's a bluff. I bet 2/3 pot and then 1/2 pot so he may think the spade scared me.
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Postby Mr Sauceman » Sat Aug 18, 2007 5:37 pm

Well IMO his bet is either a bluff (a mid pair at this point is a bluff with a possibility of having some equity with a spade but has 11 outs at best) or a hand that beats yours. I just think that more often he has you in a bad spot. You called and he had the spades?
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Postby DoctorHandles » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:39 pm

The better player should win the race. Always.
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Postby ua1176 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:49 pm

i think the [Qs] makes it an easier fold, actually.
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Postby MTPaid » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:40 pm

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Postby ua1176 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:36 am

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Postby MTPaid » Sun Aug 19, 2007 2:49 pm

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