OK, hand 1. I get . See a flop, and flop the nut straight.
Hand 2. I get [9s]. See the flop, and flop the nut straight. Not the same suits on the flop, but still.

Any math wizzkid that can give me the chance of that happening?



Maybe belongs in LC?

Well the chance of getting identical hands (including matching suits) twice in a row are 1326:1 (actually if order of cards is counted it might be twice that -but let's ignore that as you would have done)

The chance of flopping the QJT - 64 (4x4x4) ways to make out of 19600 possible flops -so 1 in 326

Chance of flopping them twice in a row is one in 326x326 = 106,276

So overall odds of two identical hands both flopping the nut str8 are about 140 million to one.

I can't help but feel that there is some form of observer-centric bias going on here - you could be posting this had any repeated hand hit any repeated flop and the odds of that happening are a lot less.

Observers paradox.


The odds of this happening are now 1.

It already happened.