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Do we like shoving here or calling? (NL$100 6-max) - Live Poker Forums

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Do we like shoving here or calling? (NL$100 6-max)

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Do we like shoving here or calling? (NL$100 6-max)

Postby DoctorHandles » Thu Aug 23, 2007 1:51 pm

Villain runs at 23/19. Seems good and aggressive. Full stacks.

1. I raise [Tc][Th] to $4 from the CO, button calls and blinds fold.

2. Flop [8h][4h][3c], pot $9. I lead $8, button raises to $26, hero does what?

I feel like his range is fairly wide here and he's taking a free turn almost always when I check to him and he's behind.

I know my 3 options are shoving, calling and donking a favorable turn, and CRAI but what is best here?
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Re: Do we like shoving here or calling? (NL$100 6-max)

Postby Zmej » Thu Aug 23, 2007 3:09 pm

"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Postby stickdude » Thu Aug 23, 2007 3:40 pm

"My name is Inigo Montoya. You cracked my Aces... prepare to die"
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Postby k3nt » Thu Aug 23, 2007 4:00 pm

This is way too marginal to continue with. I'm folding.

If he's good and aggro and has position on you, then after I fold I'm switching tables ASAP. Table selection is super important. John Vorhaus said something like, "Don't go to war with good players, go to war with bad players. That's what they're there for." Words to live by.
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Postby stickdude » Thu Aug 23, 2007 4:25 pm

"My name is Inigo Montoya. You cracked my Aces... prepare to die"
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Postby DoctorHandles » Thu Aug 23, 2007 4:53 pm

Zmej, I'm not sure if you personally favor folding here or just want to know why I don't consider it, but I'll try to go into detail.

My attempt to steal is just shy of 40%. TT makes up the top of my opening range, and I got a very favorable flop for it. If I am folding TT here, it is going to be ridiculously profitable for my opponent (who is in this case good) to just raise me with any two here. I don't want to do the exact math of it here, but since my opponent is risking $26 to win $17, I have to fold 65.3% of the time for him to show an immediate profit (that's not even counting if there are any hands I would call with and give him +EV opportunities to turn or river me). If I'm folding TT here I'm folding WELL above 65.3% of my range.

There is about a 0% chance my opponent has JJ+. If I'm beat, it's because of a set. I run at about 20/16, and I regularly call CO raises on the button with suited connectors and suited big cards like [Kh][Jh], for example. I would imagine these in in my opponents range, as well as various gutshots and air.

Granted, I'm not crushing a range of sets/all kinds of draws/air. But my hand is vulnerable to semi-bluffs or even total bluffs that have 3 or 6 outs, and there's enough dead money in the pot ($61 once I call) that I can't be all too worried about not getting money from many worse hands.

Either way, I'm not really trying to optimize my play or anything (though I do think about this stuff as I'm starting to take cards more seriously), I just don't think his range is pp's lower than 9's, and I don't think he's incapable of bluffing. If he was 16/10 then I would most likely strongly consider folding.

I know you know all of this Zmej and were probably just leveling me to try to either see if I could explain it or trying to make me answer my own question (for'ners are deep like that). Would you fold against this villain Zmej? If you would fold as some of you guys have already said, what're you doing with AA here?
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Postby k3nt » Thu Aug 23, 2007 5:14 pm

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Postby GodlikeRoy » Thu Aug 23, 2007 6:29 pm

Poker is silly.

It is not enough to be good at chess, you must also play well.

Somewhere in the world someone is training when you are not. When you race him, he will win.

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Postby Zmej » Fri Aug 24, 2007 7:27 am

"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Postby T-Rod » Fri Aug 24, 2007 7:51 am

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Postby DoctorHandles » Fri Aug 24, 2007 1:48 pm

I agree with what you said Zmej, and the more I think about it the less I like a call. Being oop sucks horribly here. The more I think about it I'm leaning towards Shove>Fold>>>>>>>Call, largely because I attempt to steal so much from the CO and feel the need to throw it down here against a good opponent.

I also strongly agree that TT definetly does NOT equal AA here for the reasons you stated. If I get it in against a hand like [Jh][Qh], he's drawing to 15 outs against my TT, but only 9 against AA. This is a very big deal here with such a close decision. I've almost never seen JJ+ shown here from a good opponent, so I can't really agree with you on that but even 100,000 hands is a small sample for something like this.

T-Rod I completely agree always folding weak overpairs in raised pots > always stacking off with weak overpairs, but I don't think it's a good idea to just stick to a general rule. This is CO vs. a good aggressive Button, so I think it's much closer here. If I raised TT UTG and a taggy sb called and check-raised me on this flop I'd drop it quite quickly (even with position).
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Postby T-Rod » Fri Aug 24, 2007 2:53 pm

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Postby Devbert » Fri Aug 24, 2007 5:52 pm

"Never cease to be amazed by the depths or excessiveness of human stupidity."
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