5/10NL at the Bike. My stack around $2500, villain $1000.

Villain is a well-known fixture, he knows how to play. He just got to the table. I've seen him do this before- buy in light (in this case $1000), then add to it if he either busts or feels like he needs it. But he seems to warm up with a lighter stack like this.

He opens in EP for $45. I call OTB with 99. Flop is 552 with two spades. He bets $85, I raise it to $300, he pushes, I fold. Fairly simple hand so far.

But I'm not a math whiz and would love to hear any input from those who are about whether I did the right thing or not. At the point I folded it was $690 in the pot and $660 to call. All I have to decide is whether he's got AK, an overpair to my 99, or an underpair (which I believe is the least likely since he's smart enough to put me on a medium pair of some kind). Overcard spades are also a possibility, but I do have one spade. Anyone care to help out here with the right move by the numbers?


Eli

You need to construct a reasonable range like {TT+, AKo, flush draws}, where
{flush draws} = {Axs, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, JT, suited in spades }.
If you feel that his range is different add other hands, then plug it in into pokerstove (free download). For the range that I constructed you have 39% equity turning your fold into a call. (Notice, though that he has a very large 'bluff' component in his range, i.e. he pushes all his AKo.)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

54,450 games 0.016 secs 3,403,125 games/sec

Board: 5s 2s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.529% 38.53% 00.00% 20979 0.00 { 9h9s }
Hand 1: 61.471% 61.47% 00.00% 33471 0.00 { JJ+, AKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, A5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, JsTs, AKo }

Ok Jimmy Jet I'll do you a favor and explain this to you, in hopes you'll do me a favor and get a hotter avatar (sorry her face is gross).

You're confused with thinking "hero does not call the $85." He does call the $85, and then he raises on top of that.

So on the flop we have $105 in the pot from the preflop action. Villain then bets $85. Our hero calls. Now there is $105 + $85 +$85 in the pot, or $275. Our hero now put an addition $215 raise in ($85 + $215 = $300). So he made LESS than a pot sized raise.