If you just call you will only get called by better hands and foold out hands we have beat. If you just call this you keep the pot small. Thi s way we can still get away of a big deciision has to be made later that we wanna get away from...we can.

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Well my point is that it looks like you're shying away from decisions on later streets in favor of lines that arent as good ev wise. I assumed most if not all solid/good players would 2-3 barrel scare cards. Guess i should stop assuming.[/quote]


Well like all things poker of course its impossible to completely know what this player would do, but given the circumstances I don't think he's going to 2 or 3-barrel it without having a hand. He only has $1000 so doing that would commit a good chunk of money, and good players don't do that against tight players who likely either really hit the flop or really didn't. Plus there are no "traditional" scare cards present here, yet anyway.

Given his stack, the flop, his action, etc. his push reads far more like protection of a hand rather than a draw or bluff. Hence my original question regarding whether the math backs up my fold.

Which BTW I did run on PokerStove, and with the widest range I could put him on I'm about 50/50 and the tightest range I can put him on he's got me 2:1, so yeah, it's close but I should've called.

Eli