$50 NL FR Bodog. Table is normal/fishy. I am playing less LAG than is usual for me lately, but if anybody has stats software they will still see I'm not exactly super tight PF (especially in position).

Ordinarily I fold this PF (of course) but there were two posters out of position so I had to take a shot at taking down the extra blinds.

I get [4h] otb. Posters check and everybody else folds, so I raise to $2.50 (5x). BB calls, everybody else folds. No notes on him so he's probably pretty ordinary.

Pot $6.25. [6c][2h]. Check, I bet $5, he calls quickly. Sigh.

Pot $16.25. . He thinks a few seconds and checks it to me again.

Obviously I just picked up some outs which I didn't figure to have. So ordinarily, as I have read, the idea would be to check behind. Fire again when your hand can't improve, check when it can -- right?

But this feels like a good semibluffing card. If he's on a weakish PP like JJ-99, 77, etc., it's super easy for me to rep AK here, it's probably what he put me on anyway. (And yes JJ is totally in the range of Bodog FR donks here, they really hate to reraise pf with anything other than QQ+ and AK.)

So ... who fires this turn? I should bet $10 to $12 if I do fire, right?

If you are going to raise a hand like 49s then you need to be able to fire bullets. This is the prefect card to bet, the turn is either a major scare card for villain or it made him a big hand. Either way is good for you, either you have a good chance to take it down or he makes a big enough hand that if you make your flush on the river you stack him, both are +ev.