by MTPaid » Sun Sep 09, 2007 1:21 am
Red: I can't tell you how many times I've made calls or plays lately, perhaps similar to this one, because I've felt I had to even though it felt like the wrong thing to do and I've been right most of the time.
Similarly, I've made a lot of calls, pushes, plays lately that were opposite of the norm (ie calling an all-in with AK high) because I've felt it was right against a particular opponent and in those situations I've been right so many times.
I absolutely don't think you can do anything but call with trips, top kicker, but since the games have gotten tougher, a lot of the players at the lower limits now know the same things you do and they know there's a good chance they are getting paid when they push by decent players thinking it's a weak Queen or a bluff from an idiot. So much more at the lower limits is read dependant per oppoenent than it used to be I think.
Think of it....against a solid opponent, he knows that if you raise oop preflop and make a healthy bet into 2 players on the flop, you've got a big hand.
Big hand = AK (miss) AQ (hit) AA-99 (still feel awesome about your hand because nobody raised preflop) AJs (miss)
So, a solid player (and we don't know this is one) is totally justified in pushing a monster here because:
A - He knows you don't have a read on him and you don't know whether he's just some schmuck who is bluffing or reallly pushing a hand.
B - If you think it's possible he's just an idiot, you probably think you have enough to call an unknown player with a lot of the hands you'd raise oop and pay the implied odds on the next 4 of 5 sets he flops if he stacks you now and makes nothing on the 3 or 4.
He's taking a good gamble on your PFR oop and c-bet that you'll have enough to call him.
Which is kinda why I asked Rhound that question to which he gave a good response and I'm pretty much in agreement.
Again, I'm NOT saying that you can ever fold this hand, but even at the lower levels, it is 55 a LOT more often than you'd like to give them credit for.
PS - I'm a little buzzed right now, so hopefully this might make some sense when I wake up and read it again tomorrow.
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