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Thin value bet this river?

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Thin value bet this river?

Postby growlers » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:18 pm

Live $4-8 game.

UTG raises, MP (super loose) cold calls, I coldcall with [Ah] [Qh] in CO , small blind calls, BB folds.

Flop (4 players):
[Ad] [Kc] [4c]

UTG bets, MP calls, I raise, SB coldcalls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Turn (4 players):
[6s]

Everyone checks, I bet, all three call.

River:
[Th]

Eveyone checks to me. I ??????? Thin value bet here or throwing away money? This was a very loose passive table.

Note:
I don't want to get too involved with a preflop discussion - we in the limit forum are all aware of the danger of coldcalling preflop with AQ, but the raiser in question raised UTG with alot of hands (55, K10o, 99, KQo all witnessed by me) and played very passively postflop even if he hit, I called knowing I have the best of it under these particular circumstances. I normally was three-betting in this spot but mixing it up a little on this hand.
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Postby MecosKing » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:18 pm

Uhm.. Im not gonna go give a long explanation, i'll just say that I bet this almost every time, when checked to, and will happily fold to a raise. I really just think that a better hand would have bet into you, unless someone made broadway on the river and theyre trying to CR you, i think you got best hand. I dont think a set or aces up would have played that weakly- even if you say the guy was passive even when he hit, him going into c/c mode with Aces up+ is almost unthinkable imho. Your gonna get paid here by worse aces and even a QK enough that you really need to bet here.
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Postby antneye » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:41 pm

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Postby McNemo » Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:08 am

<cheerleader> <cheerleader>
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Postby growlers » Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:27 pm

The problem I had with bet fold is that out of 3 other players, there is a some reasonable likelihood that someone will either have two pair that they passively played fearing AK, or checkraise me. Either way I have thrown away $8 vs taking the free showdown.
For a value bet to be correct, we have to get people with worse hands to pay me off.

Let's look at extremes - exact same board and play - but on the river it was headsup. I would clearly bet.
8 players on the end and they all checked to me - I would clearly check.
There has to be some divding line where it goes from value betting to taking the free showdown. I kinda thought it was this hand, hence my post.
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Postby antneye » Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:02 pm

4 people int he hand def makes it a tougher spot, and probably increases the likelihood of a c/r.

It's a tough spot, and may well warrant a check behind.
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Postby piersmajestyk » Tue Sep 18, 2007 7:13 pm

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Postby growlers » Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:31 pm

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Postby MecosKing » Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:48 pm

NorthViewBTP: poor old ED
NorthViewBTP: from gun totin beer swiller
NorthViewBTP: to limp wristed defender of fagdom
NorthViewBTP: ALL THINGS TO ALL MEN
NorthViewBTP: IS THE SAME AS NO THINGS TO ANY MAN
--------------------
Mekos King: NV ignoring
Jimmy BTP: he's ignoring me too
Jimmy BTP: obv fell asleep in his colostomy bag
Jimmy BTP: running shite everywhere
---------
neelguru: I gave up politics when I was 6
neelguru: Im dedicating the rest of my life to getting unstuck
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