by Aisthesis » Thu Oct 25, 2007 12:02 am
I've been experimenting with this a bit HU (completely different context, I know) and concluded that it really doesn't get you anywhere.
What I do think is very interesting is when you're deep (200 BB or more), making completely "out there" bets on some combo of stone cold nuts and nut draws.
Like looking at my KQ6 board. If You're raiser OR caller, I think what should have some potential is overbetting HUGE on KK or JTs with some runner-runner flush draw--certainly if the board is suited and you have the flush draw.
I think that has potential long-term (if you only do it on KK, well, great if they don't know you, as QQ and 66 may call, but long-term you just screw up your hand). It puts lower sets in a real quandary. In actuality, they have to fold I'm pretty sure, since they're only like 2.5:1 vs. half your range and drawing near dead vs. the other half.
Another case: nut straight with flush redraw (the nut straight needs to lay down but won't). And yet another: on flush boards making the bet on naked A (with just flush draw) and on nut flush itself--and only when there is no straight flush possible. Or maybe some kind of rule like nut flush draw with pairing of the non-A: To make the strategy sound against lower flushes, you have to have the nut flush more often than the draw.
I think if one were routinely playing 200 BB or more (which I never have) and a fair number of other stacks covered, these overbets would actually happen maybe every other session or so. (I figure actually that average for an 8-hour session is one set of any kind, and this one would have to be top set--figuring for live about 30 hands/hour, which I think is realistic, and thus putting you at 240 hands).