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betting to push out draws?

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betting to push out draws?

Postby Telex » Wed Jun 15, 2005 3:15 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Wed Jun 15, 2005 3:31 pm

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Postby BigPhish » Wed Jun 29, 2005 6:49 am

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Postby T-Rod » Wed Jun 29, 2005 7:48 am

T--
I love this question as it is one I struggle with often. I play at 6-max $100NL. At a 6-max table, you get even worse odds on a draw because there are generally fewer people in the hand who will call, and yet it seems that even at this level people will draw at the flush, etc even with pot-sized bets.

My strategy is two fold: 1) If you want to play at this table, and they are gonna draw no matter what, then just prepare yourself for a lot of folding on the river when that flush card falls. Always bet the pot, or even more. You are +EV and there will be lots of variance but long-term you will come out ahead betting the pot, winning two potsized bets when it misses for them, and folding when it hits less. Will you get bluffed sometimes when the 3rd flush card falls? Sure... But you'd also be surprised how many people will bet/call even though they missed their flush.
This strategy can be hard to do sometimes, especially if you are on a bad streak and someone seems to hit 3 or 4 lucky draws.

OR 2) Just move and fiind a tighter table. This is my preference. Sometimes I might have to hop 4 or 5 tables before I find a tight enough table to suit my style.

Tim
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Postby iceman5 » Wed Jun 29, 2005 7:08 pm

Ive yet to find a table where people wont cahse flushes. "Any draw any price" is the motto of many a fish.

Ive been watching the $25/$50 on pokernight live with hole cards exposed and watching people play J6s all day. Flush chasers will chase. thats what they do. Just make them pay and when a flush card hits and your opponent is a known chaser (meaning you have EVER seen him play Q4s)..do not pay him off.
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Postby k3nt » Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:10 pm

One major problem with the original question.

If you bet 1/3 of the pot, you ARE giving odds to chase.

Pot is $3. You bet $1. He has to call $1 to win $4. His odds of catching on the turn are almost 4-1, so it's barely a bad bet for him at all. It's a winning call on his part if you will EVER pay him off, even 25 cents worth, when the flush hits.

Bet 2/3 to 3/4 of the pot if you suspect a flush draw. Bet the full pot if it's more than a suspicion. And if you KNOW the guy's a chaser, overbet. I've seen flush chasers call bets of double the pot!
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