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600NL 55 gs on scary flop - Live Poker Forums

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600NL 55 gs on scary flop

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600NL 55 gs on scary flop

Postby meilkazar » Fri Oct 26, 2007 11:02 pm

this is the second time that villain has made a squeeze like play this session at this table, he could have a real hand here but it seemed like he could be squeeze happy too.

I call the 3 bet pf oop as I think I still have set value odds on average. Flop is pretty scary for a lot of hands so I think I have at least some fold equity here if I CR all in on the flop.

I figure his all in calling range is something like 77+ AJss+. I think its a tough call with 88-TT. Vs that range i have 25.5% equity and if he calls 100% of the time I need 31% equity. So I think i have 5.5% fold equity here at least, and if he is squeezing here at all I have a lot more on average.

Thoughts? Standard? Too high a variance play?

$3/$6 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at

Profiles and Stacks:
UTG ($695.50) 23.3/14.0/2.0 (43)
UTG+1 ($627.00) 19.4/14.9/3.0 (67)
Hero ($1178.60) 21.5/15.0/3.0 (200)
BTN ($670.00) 26.6/17.5/1.8 (143)
SB ($572.95) 29.8/18.6/3.2 (161)
BB ($1188.78) 46.7/13.7/2.4 (197)

Pre-flop: ($9, 6 players) Hero is CO [5c][5s]
UTG raises to $22, 1 fold, Hero calls $22, BTN raises to $85, 2 folds, UTG folds, Hero calls $63

Flop: [4s][7s][8c] ($201, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $160, Hero goes all-in $1093.6 ...
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Postby black_knight6 » Fri Oct 26, 2007 11:18 pm

If I have 99+ against you in this spot, I'm calling because you appear to have pretty much the hand you do (or a draw or whatever).

You are BARELY getting odds to call to set mine...and if you're just barely getting them (you're getting around 11:1 and you need 8:1) then it's not a good spot.

You need a good read to make this play: can they fold JJ-AA here, EVER? If they can, I love it...if they can't, I don't like it.
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Postby MBuckler » Fri Oct 26, 2007 11:19 pm

i no likey...make my BR go asplodie
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Postby bdon22 » Sat Oct 27, 2007 12:40 am

You're really only getting set odds here if you assume you can stack the villain every time you hit one. I think this is really spewy here, MAYBE it would be more justified on a board like 346 or somehing where you at least have a few more outs. Fold > Call Flop Shove Turn > CRAI

In other news... I love that hand converter!
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Postby Triple B » Sat Oct 27, 2007 1:26 pm

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Postby hard2tel » Sat Oct 27, 2007 3:30 pm

wow this is an interesting hand...probably because im a retard though.

I dont like your call preflop because you're barely getting set odds as it is and his range is big so you're definately not getting his stack every time u hit. so u actually need a little better odds.

For u who say he could have a combo draw wtf. u think hes calling an utg raise and a button 3-bet with 89ss oop?

tbh i dont know what i would of done in your spot. If villian CBs like every flop then i would of pushed probably. i dunno...i guess if u call preflop u have to push this right? meh

but bottom line is if u were gonna fight back i would of much rather called with AQ or something here and c/r'd all in on any flop. calling with pp's here is just spew imo.
"But meh, what I lack for in talent and intelligence I make up for in lack of ambition." -- Oatmealforxmas

- make more than xaston and roy
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Postby Triple B » Sat Oct 27, 2007 4:59 pm

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Postby hard2tel » Sat Oct 27, 2007 5:22 pm

"But meh, what I lack for in talent and intelligence I make up for in lack of ambition." -- Oatmealforxmas

- make more than xaston and roy
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Postby Triple B » Sat Oct 27, 2007 9:54 pm

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Postby meilkazar » Tue Oct 30, 2007 10:22 pm

Thanks for your thoughts, the pre-flop does seem close now in retrospect. Personally, I think if I'm playing this hand, I have to be willing to gamble on this flop.

And yes, is the nuts, but I might be biased ;)
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Postby Devbert » Wed Oct 31, 2007 6:04 pm

"Never cease to be amazed by the depths or excessiveness of human stupidity."
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