Villain is 21/11/2.5 full stacks.

[4d] in SB, UTG limps, villain CO makes it 4, I call (I THOUGHT I WAS OTB, this is normally an easy fold, but I thought I was OTB), UTG calls.

Flop [7d][3h], I ch, UTG ch, Villain bets 1/2pot 6.50, I CR to 23.50, he calls. Now I'm putting him on something like KQ/KJ, and one that will be able to fold it.

Turn Pot 60, I lead 42.50 - Thoughts?!

I was doing some math for hands like this earlier today (class is so bring it's insane), and I really don't like a lead here.

Your range for a flop cr is pretty much sets/flush draws/air (not if/how often you raise with air but you should).

Most tags will fold to your flop CR a very high % of the time. If they don't, you should just about always be betting diamond turns with all of your air/made flushes/sets, as now your bluffs are mixed with a high percentage of made flushes as well as sets.

On blank turns like this, I much prefer a check. I would CRAI my sets, fold my bluffs, and probably CRAI my flush draws a small % of the time so I'm not just doing this with sets. You have a 12 outer, so this looks like a pretty decent spot to CRAI some fraction of the time (you'll almost always have 12 outs with your draws here, whether it's with the NFD or a FD+GS).

So yeah long post but I think in isolation check/folding is probably best as I just don't see him folding and imagine he shoves a lot and you will be priced in to call, but from an optimal stand point I would both CRAI and fold some fraction of the time. I think leading is your worst option.

I like a CRAI. My reasons are because our equity drops in half if we miss the turn. Also, if we make a smaller C/r and he calls we are in a VERY akward position on the turn if we miss.

Yes, it looks like a draw but our equity is high and he will prolly fold most TP/GK hands and only call with maybe AA,KK,AK but even if he has top set we have outs. thats my theory....but I suck!

CRAI on the flop is very very bad IMO.

Well, thats why I suck and am learning.

just push the turn.

You don't think a TAG releases KQ type hands here? That's where I'm putting him and figure my FE is at least 35%.

looks good

Hm. If pot is 60 and we only have 70 behind I think turn is a must shove ? I would like a flop checkraise a lot more if there was not A or K in the flop.

Yo Roy, do you ever CRAI the turn here with a set or flush draw?

I think the lead/call lets me maximize my EV by betting when I have my highest FE.

I think he'll check behind a lot, and I can't really bluff him off if I do. And if he bets after a check, I'm obviously CRAI'ing, but I have zero fold equity.