Opponent is 14/6/1.8 22WTSD over 381 hands.

Villain open-raises to $2 ($30.95), I re-raise from MP2 to $7 ($40.25), Villain calls

[Qc][8d] Pot $14.05
Villain checks ($25.95)

- If paying attention over 300+ hands or with stats, assume that he would put me on a small (JJ+,AK) range when re-raising his earlyish position raise from MP. But who knows what they pay attention to, even playing that tightly.
- He has almost 8-1 odds (after rake ya figure) to set me after my re-raise after so that's kinda close. Didn't think he'd make the call to set.
- 6% PFR, raising from EP is most likely a very strong hand. KK would have probably had me in preflop...I think? So TT+, AK right? Think he might fold AK too though. So he's either hit his set or he's WAY behind?
- No draws on the board, not that I think he has a straight or flush drawing hand anyway.

I think you gotta valuebet your overpair hands in order to protect your continuation bets.

Against floaters, and aggressive/tricky players, I'll use a deceptive check on the turn with the overpair in order to protect my turn checks but usually when I'm OOP.

In position, pretty clear bet bet evaluate.

Exactly he is either WA/WB. With the emphasis on behind. He is only gonna benefit from a free card. Just bet and bet some value. Hopefully, he has KK or an out side chance of AQ. Like you siad you are going to the felt either way so may as well start putting money in.

In this exact situation, against this type of opponent a check is ok. But in general a bet is better for sure. if he was just a basic unknown or fish a bet is better. This opponent "appears" to be thinking.

I understand that you think this specific situation merits individual attention, but I completely disagree.

Do you really think checking the flop will be more effective than checking the turn to get value from 99-KK/AQ hands? I don't.

In my opinion, you gain 0 value, you lose credibility on your continuation bets, and you give free cards. You're better off just betting and letting him make a mistake by calling while behind.

I don't think there's enough reason to justify slow playing an overpair. If it were a set+, then things change.

I didn't see the 1/2 stack from the villain. So this changes things a bit. But not that much.

You also don't divulge your own stats. So it's hard to imagine the villain's image of yourself.

Obviously, our read on opponents reactions to flop bets differ. I play 200NL mostly, and a villain with a half stack has 99-KK, he's not folding the flop for a single continuation bet on THAT flop. If he calls a continuation bet, then yes he may just be committing himself with a weak holding.. THIS IS GOOD, let HIM make the mistake of committing himself by just peeling the flop.

If he IS folding for a single continuation bet, then (here's where we differ) then he shouldn't be paying off a blank turn either. Value gained by checking = 0, free card given.

I hope this explains my thought process more clearly. I still see no value in checking the flop here. He's either calling or folding, and there's a greater chance of him calling the flop, than the turn.

I do agree, that as his stack size diminishes, AA becomes a hand that you can slowplay a bit, but I think the highest EV play is just to bet the flop.

A good board to check aces is something like TT2, bet them on almost every other one