Stacks:

Hero $255 (OTB)

Villian: $198 (CO)


Reads:

I have not seen him do much of anything as of yet, He hasd been at he table for about 3 orbits.


Hand:


EP limps, MP limps, Vilian raises $9, Hero 3bets $27, all folds to Villan who calls.


flop: [2c][8s] $59 (2 Players)


Villamn Checks, Hero bets $50, Villan CRAI $171, Hero??


Analysis:


Well I guess his range is 99-AA,AcKc. I think if he had AA,KK he may have 4 bet PF or pushed as I see alot here ar Cake. I am getting 2.5-1 on my money. Anybody think I am good here 1 out of 3.5 times? Did I get lucky here or was this a bad call? I figured if he had AA,KK its just a cold deck, This really loos like a draw to me, Thoughts?

If I had notes on him saying he was solid or such prolly woulda folded.


Afterthoughs:
I just put it in Pokerstove and against TT+,AcKc I am 51% not as good as I was hoping for.

51% is pretty good when you consider youre risking $121 to win $290 if you call.

Personally I dont think he has TT very often at all at these stakes.

Do you have the Q of clubs?

Yessim. [Qc]

If the decision is very close, the fact that he has the club makes some difference. Not only do we have one of villains outs if he has a flush draw, we have extra equity when behind.

Anyway...I would call here but at FR this is a fold against many villains. At 6-max this is an insta-call against almost anyone.

He had KK obviously..LOL.

So T-Rod you are saying his range is basically AA,KK,AK?

That sucks. At FR I think you can let this go against a lot of players. QQ is kinda a tweener hand here...I would definately fold JJ, I would instacall KK.

I still think reraising preflop is the right play as long as you have seen villain isolating and raising preflop with any frequency. If you just call you can easily end up with a 4-way flop and no idea where you are at, which is really gonna suck a lot of the time.

Look at what happens if you call and limpers call but don't catch a hand:

The pot is ~$38 on the flop. It checks to villain, he bets $30, you call, limpers fold. Turn pot is $98. If turn is a blank, he bets $70. Now you are looking at calling $70 and will only have $90 left on the river when the pot will be $235ish. Its going to be tough to not get stacked if villain is good unless a scare card comes (like an A or a club).