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KK 6 mac $50 Beat?

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Postby phytopath » Thu Dec 20, 2007 6:25 pm

I think there was some analysis on 2+2 about the break even point being 11.2-1 implied and pot odds to make set-mining profitable.

So here the effective stacks are 150bbs ignore the dead money since that gets eaten by rake anyway.

villian raises to 4 bb, hero 3-bets to 11 bbs; villian only needs to call 7 bbs to win 150 so he has excellent implied +pot odds about 21-1. Even with 100 bb stacks it is 14-1.

Now if there was a slightly bigger raise to say 15-16 bbs then the villian needs to call 12 bbs to win 150, which is 12.5-1 making the call still a good one, but not nearly as much so and hero stacking off nearly everytime there is a safe board no a big mistake. With 100bb stacks villian is only getting a 8.3-1 making set-mining a big mistake.

this isn't my analysis or anything just repeating it from another source.
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Postby black_knight6 » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:55 pm

Turn bet is terrible...sorry. Make it 23ish and then you're snap calling the CR...

Here's the thing: if you bet this turn, you can't fold.

If you're not comfortable calling his CRAI, then don't bet and call basically any river.

Those are your 2 options... I tend to bet since you get paid by QQ and AJ/JT/TT type hands that floated.
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Postby black_knight6 » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:58 pm

Oh...and my "if you bet the turn, you can't fold" only applies to REAL turn bets ;)
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