Plussed 4600$ over 2700 hands during the weekend (1100$ over All in EV in this period) Cake & Ongame 400-600NL.

I played fairly tight (21/17/4), ran good, hit my draws and got paid off by donkeys and didn't have any big suckouts.

First hand of the session, you have to love when you stack someone in a limped pot.

$3/$6 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($547.70)
CO ($352.50)
BTN ($582.00)
SB ($605.40)
Hero ($591.00)

Pre-flop: ($9, 5 players) Hero is BB [Qd]
UTG calls $6, 3 folds, Hero checks

Flop: [9d][Qc] ($15, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $6, Hero bets $24, UTG bets $36, Hero calls $18.

Turn: ($99, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($99, 2 players)
Hero bets $125, UTG bets $250, Hero goes all-in $418, UTG goes all-in $249.70

Final Pot: $1141.70
Hero shows: [Qd]
UTG shows: [Ts]

Hero wins $1138.7 ( won $547.7 )
UTG lost -$547.70


And to balance out, most expensive hands of the weekend (Yes -260$ was the most I lost in any hand), donkey lost value here:

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at

Stacks:
CO ($1163.55)
BTN ($312.15)
SB ($467.00)
Hero ($841.00)

Pre-flop: ($6, 4 players) Hero is BB [Qs]
CO calls $4, 1 fold, SB calls $2, Hero bets $22, CO calls $22, SB folds

Flop: [Qh][Ks] ($56, 2 players)
Hero bets $41, CO calls $41.

Turn: ($138, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $100, Hero calls $100.

River: ($338, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $100, Hero calls $100.

Final Pot: $538
Hero shows: [Qs]
CO shows: [Ac]

CO wins $536 ( won $269 )
Hero lost -$267.00
SB lost -$4.00



BR 27.6K (6K$ to go for a breakeven month)

Well deserved Cooper.

Meh..

I have been going at it with another LAG for a few rounds 3 betting his button opens from BB when the following hand comes up (He opens everything on button).

Stacks 150BB

He opens button to $16, I RR to 54 in BB with 99, he calls.

Flop, pot $110
734 rainbow

I contemplate what to do, if I bet I'm pretty sure he is reraising me because I have a feeling he's getting tired of me and that flop seems to have missed me, I decide I'm probably going with the hand and lead $90, he insta raises to $300, I shove he calls.

He flips over 75s for TP and gutshot. I know exactly what is going to happen and sure enough he turns his 6. And my EV vs winnings curve gap increases with another 1000$.

Still 5000$ under EV for the month and alot of KK vs AA losses. This is how it goes, I have a few decent days where I run in line with my EV and then I start getting beat down again.... How the *%& can I be running this bad constantly. My hand size sample keeps growing and the difference between my sklansky bucks and won at showdowns just keeps growing.

Ongame is rigged...

BR 27.3K

Running great ... I don't think I can get away from here...

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($740.00)
CO ($335.20)
BTN ($310.60)
Hero ($409.00)
BB ($60.80)

Pre-flop: ($6, 5 players) Hero is SB [Ah]
UTG bets $15, 2 folds, Hero bets $54, 1 fold, UTG calls $41.

Flop: [6s][Js] ($116, 2 players)
Hero bets $90, UTG calls $90.

Turn: ($296, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in $263, UTG calls $263.

River: ($822, 2 players)

Final Pot: $822
UTG shows: [Ac]
Hero shows: [Ah]

UTG wins $819 ( won $410 )
Hero lost -$409.00

Another 1000$ worse than all in EV day for the record.

2 hour session (1000 hands), -60$.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at

Stacks:
CO ($394.00)
BTN ($1725.40)
SB ($438.00)
Hero ($400.00)

Pre-flop: ($6, 4 players) Hero is BB [Qd]
CO bets $15, 2 folds, Hero bets $52, CO bets $150, Hero goes all-in $344, CO goes all-in $229

Flop: [7d][Ad] ($796, 2 players)

Turn: ($796, 2 players)

River: ($796, 2 players)

Final Pot: $796
CO shows: [9h]
Hero shows: [Qd]

CO wins $788 ( won $394 )
Hero wins $6 ( lost -$394 )

This is getting outright ridiculous, running 5500 worse than ev for jan so far.

BR 27K

Statistics fun

I had some time at work today and to clear my sanity I decided to run the following simulation.

If I have 500 all in coinflips (which is about what I have in my database at Ongame, not 50/50 coinflips of course though), but we will assume all are 50/50 flips for simplicity with 400NL for stacks. How good or bad results can I expect (and what spread) when I simulate these 500 flips in a C++ program I just wrote:

I run these 500 coinflips through the simulation once and I typically come up with numbers between -10000 to +10000 really often ! (Running -10000$ in 500 conflips at 400NL is not at all uncommon, actually it is really common ).

Example of a number series of results of 500 coinflips:
2400
20000
0
-11200
-3200
-4000
-8800
1600
-7200
4000
-2400
-1600
11200

If I repeat the simulation 10000 times the worst and best results are:
worst -33600
best +34000

The deviation here is really small (as expected due to large sample), typically between +-33000-36000$ over 10000 times.

I increase to running the simulation 100000 times and worst and best are typicaly +-38000$.

Over 1 million repetitions we run at -42000$ to +42000$

And finally 10 million repititions (I had to give my computer 2 minute to calculate this and it's still a really powerful one) -47000$ to +50000$

Moral of the story, running 10000$ worse than EV on 500 coinflips is VERY common, typically it happened every 1 out of 10 times in my simulation. This is exactly what I have been doing on Ongame and it feels a bit better knowing this. Also quite a few Poker players would have run about 30000$ worse or better than their EV here


For the nerds:

// Function that calculates result of 500 coinflips with 400 stacks
int runSample()
{
int result = 0;
for( int i = 0; i < 500 ; i++)
{
int max = RAND_MAX;
int test = rand();
if (test < RAND_MAX/2)
{
// Lose
result = result - 400;
}
else
{
// Win
result = result + 400;
}
}
return result;
}


main program:

srand ( time(NULL) );
int worst = 0;
int best = 0;
int res = 0;
for (int a = 0 ; a < 10000000 ; a++)
{
res = runSample();
if (res < worst)
worst = res;
if (res > best)
best = res;
}

Nice work on running the simulation mate, surely that must be +EV for sanity.

Nice session with a few fun highlights:

2 hours, 600 hands, +1200$ (Running on EV)

How sexy was this river....

$3/$6 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($809.10)
CO ($698.20)
BTN ($619.75)
SB ($1478.45)
Hero ($594.00)

Pre-flop: ($9, 5 players) Hero is BB [8h]
UTG calls $6, 2 folds, SB calls $3, Hero checks

Flop: [6s][9s] ($18, 3 players)
SB bets $16, Hero calls $16, 1 fold

Turn: ($50, 2 players)
SB bets $44, Hero calls $44.

River: ($138, 2 players)
SB bets $111, Hero goes all-in $528, SB calls $417.

Final Pot: $1194
SB shows: [Js]
Hero shows: [8h]

Hero wins $1191 ( won $597 )
UTG lost -$6.00
SB lost -$594.00


$3/$6 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at

Stacks:
Hero ($576.35)
CO ($474.00)
BTN ($608.50)
SB ($883.25)
BB ($571.60)

Pre-flop: ($9, 5 players) Hero is UTG [Js]
Hero bets $21, CO bets $36, BTN calls $36, 2 folds, Hero goes all-in $555.35, CO goes all-in $438, BTN folds

Flop: [9h][3h] ($1095.35, 2 players)

Turn: ($1095.35, 2 players)

River: ($1095.35, 2 players)

Final Pot: $1095.35
Hero shows: [Js]
CO shows: [Tc]

Hero wins $1092.35 ( won $516 )
BTN lost -$36.00
CO lost -$474.00


Didnt plan to 3 barrel, but when turn came i think I had to. I couldnt give up river especially since the flop was so draw heavy and river bricked so I fired again. Standard =)

$3/$6 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($927.75)
CO ($668.20)
BTN ($877.45)
Hero ($1136.00)

Pre-flop: ($6, 4 players) Hero is BB [Ad]
UTG calls $6, 2 folds, Hero bets $21, UTG calls $21.

Flop: [8c][9c] ($54, 2 players)
Hero bets $44, UTG calls $44.

Turn: ($142, 2 players)
Hero bets $115, UTG calls $115.

River: ($372, 2 players)
Hero bets $300, 1 fold

Final Pot: $672
Hero shows: [Ad]

Hero wins $670 ( won $184 )
UTG lost -$186.00


Sick stuff....

$3/$6 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($572.50)
CO ($889.25)
BTN ($562.60)
Hero ($1086.35)
BB ($300.00)

Pre-flop: ($9, 5 players) Hero is SB [Qd]
2 folds, BTN bets $15, Hero bets $55, BB goes all-in $294, BTN folds, Hero calls $242.

Flop: [8h][6h] ($615, 2 players)

Turn: ($615, 2 players)

River: ($615, 2 players)

Final Pot: $615
Hero shows: [Qd]
BB shows: [6d]

BB wins $612 ( won $312 )
BTN lost -$15.00
Hero lost -$300.00



Comments on my river play ? (Yes I should have bet turn but had too many tables runnning). Is this an easy shove or do you just called. If there hadn't been a str8 out i think I would have just called, now I shoved I was hoping to see 67h or another worse heart flush (since the A is out as well).

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($384.30)
CO ($298.00)
BTN ($393.80)
Hero ($497.10)

Pre-flop: ($4, 4 players) Hero is BB [Th]
1 fold, CO calls $4, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: [Ah][4h] ($8, 2 players)
Hero bets $5, CO calls $5.

Turn: ($18, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($18, 2 players)
Hero bets $22, CO bets $88, Hero goes all-in $466.10, CO goes all-in $201

Final Pot: $795.10
Hero shows: [Th]
CO shows: [7h]

Hero wins $199.1 ( lost -$298 )
CO wins $594 ( won $296 )

Morning Cake session.

+1100$

I seriously thuoght he had me on the turn, but I had a rough session so far and was getting tired of being messed around with. So I decided to find out wht he was up to.

Hand #1392011470000633: Copenhagen (6-max) 11470
Seat 1: StackedyaSON (975.00 in chips)
Seat 2: NYActionMike (2115.90 in chips)
Seat 3: IceStorm (1251.00 in chips)
Seat 8: CanIgetaAmen (442.90 in chips)
Seat 9: georgegrig56 (2569.80 in chips)
Seat 10: element42 (954.00 in chips)
NYActionMike: posts small blind $5
IceStorm: posts big blind $10
Dealt to IceStorm [ Ah Qs ]
CanIgetaAmen: folds
georgegrig56: calls
element42: calls
StackedyaSON: folds
NYActionMike: calls
IceStorm: raises to $50
georgegrig56: calls
element42: calls
NYActionMike: calls
*** FLOP *** [ 2d 8d 3h ]
NYActionMike: checks
IceStorm: checks
georgegrig56: checks
element42: checks
*** TURN *** [ As ]
NYActionMike: checks
IceStorm: bets $200
georgegrig56: folds
element42: folds
NYActionMike: raises to $552
IceStorm: calls
*** RIVER *** [ 4h ]
NYActionMike: is all in
IceStorm: is all in
NYActionMike: returns uncalled bet $864.90
*** SHOW DOWN ***
NYActionMike: shows [ Kd Td ] (High Card, Ace )
IceStorm: shows [ Ah Qs ] (Pair of Aces )
IceStorm wins $2,599 with Pair of Aces


Standard and a nice win He had AJo

Hand #1392011470000635: Copenhagen (6-max) 11470
Seat 1: StackedyaSON (990.00 in chips)
Seat 2: NYActionMike (864.90 in chips)
Seat 3: IceStorm (2594.00 in chips)
Seat 8: CanIgetaAmen (432.90 in chips)
Seat 9: georgegrig56 (2519.80 in chips)
Seat 10: element42 (904.00 in chips)
CanIgetaAmen: posts small blind $5
georgegrig56: posts big blind $10
Dealt to IceStorm [ 3c 3s ]
element42: folds
StackedyaSON: raises to $35
NYActionMike: calls
IceStorm: calls
CanIgetaAmen: folds
georgegrig56: calls
*** FLOP *** [ Jd 3d Ts ]
georgegrig56: checks
StackedyaSON: bets $85
NYActionMike: calls
IceStorm: raises to $375
georgegrig56: folds
StackedyaSON: is all in
NYActionMike: folds
IceStorm: calls
*** TURN *** [ Ks ]
*** RIVER *** [ 7s ]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
IceStorm wins $2,137 with Three of a Kind, Threes

BR 29.7K