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If You Have An Out, You Have A Winner! - Live Poker Forums

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Postby MTPaid » Fri Feb 01, 2008 11:50 pm

I have never felt so dejected after playing a tournament in my life. I just had what was probably my biggest tournament blowup ever. I really need to break something right now.

I played 5 MTT's today and built up a sizeable stack in all 5. I cashed in none. But the real story was that I was going to win the $28K tonight on Full Tilt. I was top 30 in chips with 500 left (1587 started) and chip leader at my table.

I had been playing a tight game and hadn't tried anything funny. Everytime I bet or raised and had to show down, I had a big hand. .

Now I almost never do this without either a short stack or a big hand and I thought it was something I needed to change. I thought I had some respect at the table. I had been in that seat with most of these players for 2 hours. It looked like the perfect resteal situation and even if I was called, I had a big stack and I could flop well. As usual though, every single tournament move I make since October was with HORRIBLE timing.

Now I felt like I had to call because I was getting 2 to 1, and it was the right call, but typical Full Tilt style to rip my heart out. BTW, Tilt gave me a $75 bonus today so I'm stuck there for another 10 days. I got crushed on Full Tilt today, won a little on Stars.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
$28000 Guarantee
9 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG (4083)
UTG+1 (7750)
MP1 (5610)
MP2 (13020)
MP3 (7700)
CO (8335)
BTN (10045)
Hero (15110)
BB (7521)

Blinds: 120/240 Ante 25

Pre-flop: (585, 9 players) Hero is SB [Jh][Th]
5 folds, CO raises to 720 (7615), BTN calls 720 (9325), Hero raises to 2360 (12630), BB goes all-in 7496 (0), CO folds (7615), BTN folds (9325), Hero calls 5136 (7614)
ImageImage 38.70% (EV = -$962.67)
ImageImage 61.30% (EV = $2052.70)

Flop: [3h][Jc][7s] (16882, 2 players)
ImageImage 74.10% (EV = $12514.75)
ImageImage 25.90% (EV = $4034.44)

Turn: [4s] (16889, 2 players)
ImageImage 65.90% (EV = $11129.85)
ImageImage 34.10% (EV = $5311.76)

River: [Ad] (16889, 2 players)
ImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)
ImageImage 100.00% (EV = $15577.00)

Final Pot: 16657
Hero shows: [Jh][Th]
BB shows: [As][Ks]

BB wins 16657 ( won +9161 )
Hero lost -7496
CO lost -720
BTN lost -720

WAIT! That's not the end. Here's 2 hands later how I get it all back.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
$28000 Guarantee
9 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG (5560)
UTG+1 (12970)
MP1 (7170)
MP2 (7565)
MP3 (9275)
Hero (7564)
BTN (18057)
SB (3793)
BB (7220)

Blinds: 120/240 Ante 25

Pre-flop: (585, 9 players) Hero is CO [As][Qd]
5 folds, Hero raises to 700 (6864), 2 folds, BB calls 460 (6520)
ImageImage 60.00% (EV = $482.00)
ImageImage 40.00% (EV = $88.00)

Flop: [8c][4d][Ac] (1970, 2 players)
BB checks (6520), Hero bets 1240 (5624), BB calls 1240 (5280)
ImageImage 78.00% (EV = $2234.12)
ImageImage 22.00% (EV = -$260.12)

Turn: [6d] (4454, 2 players)
BB checks (5280), Hero bets 3120 (2504), BB calls 3120 (2160)
ImageImage 70.50% (EV = $4419.27)
ImageImage 29.50% (EV = $34.73)

River: [9s] (10694, 2 players)
BB goes all-in 2135 (25), Hero calls 2135 (369)
ImageImage 0.00% (EV = -$2135.00)
ImageImage 100.00% (EV = $12829.00)

Final Pot: 14735
Hero shows: [As][Qd]
BB shows: [8d][9d]

BB wins 14735 ( won +7540 )
Hero lost -7195

How many times can you kill a man?

Not over yet, I'm down to 294 with 150/300 blinds + an ante.

I shove and double up once, twice, three times. I shove AQ and take the blinds. I shove 77 and take the blinds. I double up 1 more time, I'm gonna make the bubble. I open shove A6o OTB, run into 77 in SB. GG!

Making it even better, I played in a KO tournament. There was a guy without a fold button that was winning EVERY SINGLE hand. 77/14 65 WTSD. He's shown down hands as weak as K2o, 97o, and 42o. So he limps UTG, I raise KQo OTB. Flop ATx. He checked. I shove. He calls with T5o. GG me. At least he had a hand that time.


The pain!!!!!
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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MTPaid
 
Posts: 3681
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Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Sun Feb 03, 2008 2:09 am

Here's a few interesting stats.
2 days into February, 2 losing days at Full Tilt, 2 winning days at Stars.
Had the chip lead deep into another Full Tilt MTT tonight, PLO8 this time and had my heart ripped out again. Couldn't have hand picked more disgusting cards for the last few rivers.

Even more interesting.....
If I lose this week, which is very possible, I'm slightly down not including bonus, I will have lost 10 of the last 12 weeks yet still be just about break even in that span.
I'll also have lost 17 of the last 23 weeks going back to the end of August, but I'm still actually in profit over that span as well as 3 of the 5 months have been profitable.

Strange and frustrating.

The disturbing thing is that the Full Tilt MTT's have become exactly like the cash games. Maybe they've always been but I forgot because I haven't played tournaments there since October.

You fold a bunch of hands in a row, then you bet and wait for the inevitable shove.
You have nothing, they raise and win.
You have something, they don't care, they raise and sometimes you win, sometimes they suck out.
You try to bluff they raise.
They bet, you raise, they shove.
You shove, they don't care, they call.
The more hands they take to showdown, the more chips they accumulate.

Your weapons are very limited. They completely take away aggression from your arsenal. I've been doing very well in the early and even middle stages this week, but always running smack into catastrophe middle/late before or around the bubble.

Here's the crusher tonight:
Right around the bubble. About 30 left, 27 paid. I'm the chip leader and of course BB is 2nd in chips. Shittiest river card possible for me.

Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Tournament
$3000 Guarantee
8 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG (36684)
UTG+1 (3180)
MP1 (26146)
Hero (42106)
CO (18424)
BTN (20832)
SB (2651)
BB (42070)

Blinds: 400/800

Pre-flop: (1200, 8 players) Hero is MP2 [Ad][As][Qs][4c]
3 folds, Hero raises to 2800 (39306), CO calls 2800 (15624), 2 folds, BB calls 2000 (39270)

Flop: [2h][4d][Jh] (8804, 3 players)
BB bets 2400 (36870), Hero raises to 8000 (31306), 1 fold, BB calls 5600 (31270)

Turn: [9c] (24808, 2 players)
BB checks (31270), Hero bets 11200 (20106), BB calls 11200 (20070)

River: [5h] (47208, 2 players)
BB goes all-in 20070 (0), Hero folds (20106)

Final Pot: 47200

BB wins 67270 ( won +25200 )
CO lost -2800
Hero lost -22000

And here's the exit hand in 18th.....

Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Tournament
$3000 Guarantee
9 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG (7995)
UTG+1 (81574)
MP1 (27996)
MP2 (41318)
MP3 (14815)
CO (16640)
BTN (22056)
SB (38438)
Hero (18435)

Blinds: 1000/2000

Pre-flop: (3000, 9 players) Hero is BB [5d][Kd][Ks][Jd]
3 folds, MP2 raises to 6000 (35318), 4 folds, Hero goes all-in 18435 (0), MP2 calls 12435 (22883)
ImageImageImageImage 46.60% (EV = $144.42)
ImageImageImageImage 53.40% (EV = $1788.65)

Flop: [8d][8c][7h] (37872, 2 players)
ImageImageImageImage 51.90% (EV = $20692.53)
ImageImageImageImage 48.10% (EV = $18219.80)

Turn: [Qd] (37879, 2 players)
ImageImageImageImage 58.80% (EV = $23443.56)
ImageImageImageImage 41.20% (EV = $15609.03)

River: [Ah] (37886, 2 players)
ImageImageImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)
ImageImageImageImage 100.00% (EV = $37870.00)

Final Pot: 37870
Hero shows: [5d][Kd][Ks][Jd]
MP2 shows: [2d][4c][2h][Ad]

MP2 wins 27677 ( won +9242 )
Hero lost -18435
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Posts: 3681
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:42 am
Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Mon Feb 04, 2008 12:08 am

Missed the early tournaments, missed the afternoon ones, played 4 late.
$24K on FT - just made the bubble - profit $10
$25K on Stars - ran 99 into JJ about an hour and a half in
FTOPS SS Event 11 (LO8) - got a seat to a $50 satellite
$28K on FT - just made the bubble - profit $10

Exit hand in the $28K. All I can do is get it in good against the donkeys and pray. Funny, with blinds 400/800 an early limp, a raise, and a call, and yet I'm 100% sure KQs is the best hand right now. Unfortunately, I didn't flop da nuts in a crucial spot. Don't play enough hands to qualify for that.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
$28000 Guarantee
9 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG (17168)
UTG+1 (14411)
MP1 (37018)
MP2 (20602)
MP3 (44831)
CO (12026)
BTN (23710)
Hero (8084)
BB (10996)

Blinds: 400/800 Ante 100

Pre-flop: (2100, 9 players) Hero is SB [Kc][Qc]
UTG+1 says "nb" (14411), 1 fold, UTG+1 calls 800 (13611), 2 folds, UTG says "i guess thers no more poker to be played already with 160 left" (17168), MP3 raises to 3200 (41631), CO calls 3200 (8826), 1 fold, Hero goes all-in 7984 (0), 1 fold, UTG+1 folds (13610), MP3 calls 4784 (36847), CO calls 4784 (4042)
ImageImage 54.40% (EV = $6188.29)
ImageImage 26.00% (EV = -$872.22)
ImageImage 19.60% (EV = -$2622.81)

Flop: [Td][7c][5h] (27353, 3 players)
MP3 bets 10400 (26447), CO calls 3942 (100)
ImageImage 23.30% (EV = $6070.12)
ImageImage 67.60% (EV = $17801.37)
ImageImage 9.10% (EV = -$145.66)

Turn: [7d] (41718, 3 players)
ImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)
ImageImage 81.00% (EV = $33791.58)
ImageImage 19.00% (EV = $7926.42)

River: [3h] (41718, 3 players)
ImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)
ImageImage 100.00% (EV = $34336.00)
ImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)

Final Pot: 34336
Hero shows: [Kc][Qc]
MP3 shows: [7h][9h]
CO shows: [Qd][9d]

MP3 wins 40794 ( won +22410 )
Hero lost -7984
UTG+1 lost -800
CO lost -11926

1st 30 hands of this tournament I pick up....
AJ in BB. SB limps in, I raise, he calls, he c/r's rag flop.
88 I raise in MP, 2 calls behind. Rag flop, neither one folds. 1st guy calls my c-bet, 2nd guy raises.
AJ in hijack. Both blinds call. SB floats and pots river
AQ - I flop an Ace and now everyone folds
A8s CO. Both blinds call again. SB doesn't even wait, pots the flop.
AQo EP. Button calls. Rag flop gets floated. I decide to fire a 2nd bullet, he's all-in.

So 5 out of the first 6 times I raise, the caller wants to play for a stack. How to you beat that? You need the nuts. Nobody's folding. I saw a guy c/r on a rag flop tonight, then call the other guy's shove with A9 hi. I think Helmuth has it right. SLAP (slightly loose passive) might be the poker of the future to combat all this aggressiveness.

Around the bubble is more insanity. You would think that people might want to fold to make the money. No way. All-in. You raise, they shove. Someone else raises, they're all-in. And it's not even smart aggressiveness either. It's like JTo vs A3s not even desperate stacks just before they get paid. It's pure stupidity.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Posts: 3681
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:42 am
Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Mon Feb 04, 2008 5:04 pm

Played 3 FTOPS satellites this afternoon.

The Good
Won a super to Event #1 with 29. Top 3 got seats. I actually educated a fish out of frustration and it paid off for me. With 7 left, 6 get paid, I'm the 3rd largest stack. I raise ATs UTG, the 2nd largest stack (basically tied with me) calls on the button. SB shortie pushes, I fold, and BTN calls with J7s!!! Anyway, suckout with the flush, which I'm actually happy about, but I berate afterwards for not having any idea how to play a satellite.

BTN said that they won and that's all that matters. I didn't go any further, except to say that calling a raise from the other big stack on the bubble of a satellite with a couple of shorties holding J7s of all hands is ridiculous. Anyway, after that this player stayed away from me the rest of the tournament. So sometimes educating the fish has positive results in tournaments.

The Bad
I got crippled early in a direct sat to the PLHE event. I flopped trip 6's with T6 out of the big blind. 5 on the turn and I lose to MP limper with 65s. Never recovered.

The Ugly
A 7 player super to the same PLHE event. Winner take all. With 3 left, I raise the 2nd hand with QTo OTB. SB re-raises, I fold.

SB had been re-raising fairly liberally. Next hand OTB, I make a marginal, yet totally correct decision to shove over him with KJo. And like I said, on Full Tilt counter-aggression does not stop them, it only makes them stupider and stronger......

Pot Limit Holdem Tournament
Super Sat to FTOPS Event #4
3 players
Converted at

Stacks:
Hero (2948)
SB (5394)
BB (2158)

Blinds: 50/100

Pre-flop: (150, 3 players) Hero is BTN [Kh][Jc]
Hero raises to 350 (2598), SB raises to 1150 (4194), 1 fold, Hero goes all-in 2948 (0), SB calls 1798 (2446)
ImageImage 27.00% (EV = -$1326.65)
ImageImage 73.00% (EV = $1465.58)

Flop: [5c][9d][Qs] (6005, 2 players)
ImageImage 71.60% (EV = $4306.02)
ImageImage 28.40% (EV = $1717.06)

Turn: [As] (6014, 2 players)
ImageImage 84.10% (EV = $5065.34)
ImageImage 15.90% (EV = $961.31)

River: [Ah] (6023, 2 players)
ImageImage 100.00% (EV = $5996.00)
ImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)

Final Pot: 5996
SB shows: [Jh][9s]
Hero shows: [Kh][Jc]

SB wins 5996 ( won +3048 )
Hero lost -2948


C'mon J9o!! That's my seat!

Got 1 more direct satellite to Event #1. Hopefully I can win 2 seats and collect $216.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
User avatar
MTPaid
 
Posts: 3681
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:42 am
Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Mon Feb 04, 2008 11:56 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
User avatar
MTPaid
 
Posts: 3681
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:42 am
Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Tue Feb 05, 2008 2:52 pm

The plan today is to play in just about every FTOPS#1 satellite starting in about 5 minutes. Think there are around 10 of them. 1 seat and a couple of $216 cashes would be great.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
User avatar
MTPaid
 
Posts: 3681
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:42 am
Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Tue Feb 05, 2008 7:02 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
User avatar
MTPaid
 
Posts: 3681
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:42 am
Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Tue Feb 05, 2008 10:37 pm

I wonder if this site ever gets tired of it's own bullshit......

Holy Shit
Aggression...ahhahaahaha......c/r all-in K6s on T8T flop with a FD. Get called by 7-fuckin-7. Why you can't fold a pair or 7's after getting c/r'ed all-in there? I don't know. I got 14 outs. Nope, 7 on the turn. Goodbye.

Followed by Jesus Christ
Guy had shoved in on me once already. He won't fold if you shove either. Called an all-in with 92s preflop. Won of course. I finally catch him. I turn a straight and weak bet into him looking for him to push again. He obliges. I lose to K-hi flush.

Followed by Son of a Bitch
I don't think I had 1 person fold to any of my preflop re-raises/pushes today. How can they be an integral part of your game if nobody ever folds to them. Even better, I think I had the best hand every time.....and lost every time. Open-raise in MP, I shove ATo in LP, not even all that short. Insta-call by KQ. Not even a thought. I lose.

9 satellites on the day. 0 entries into FTOPS events. I did cash for $55 twice in supers that I already had seats in. And once again I was able to take the chip lead in a tournament and dump it off rather quickly to people who couldn't fold the worst hand.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
User avatar
MTPaid
 
Posts: 3681
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:42 am
Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Tue Feb 05, 2008 11:23 pm

The hands where that guy ran 80/75, shoved in preflop almost every hand and won a seat in FTOPS.
forum/viewtopic.php?p=297054#297054
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
User avatar
MTPaid
 
Posts: 3681
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:42 am
Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Wed Feb 06, 2008 9:48 pm

Got crushed again at PLO8 at Full Tilt. Kept getting it in with good equity. More unsubtle super flops, lucky turns, and jackpot rivers. Full Tilt calls it a little bit of variance, yeah, and the southern states had a little bit of wind yesterday. Variance....I guess that's their special code name. I've managed to turn a relatively low variance game into a super high one. Keep getting it in with around 50% equity or more 3 ways and getting scooped. I did get it way behind 1x. That was the time I naturally hit a miracle card and got 1/2 the pot. All the other times I was much better off and got scooped.

Anyway, I don't think I'm playing bad because I've been posting hands in the Omaha forum and most of the feedback I'm getting is that most people would take the same lines as I am. Thinking of purchasing the full version of PTOmaha tonight just to see how badly I'm really running.

I wait, I trap, I get scooped. I've now blown off most of my bonus from January in just a couple of days. Full Tilt....variance.....hahaha. Does anyone who plays low stakes games, any low stakes games at Full Tilt have normal variance there?

I'll start. In 17 real table hours of PLO8 this year at the .25/.50 blinds, I'm losing $11.50 per hour and my STD = ±29.66 .....normal?

Thinking of moving over to LO8 for a while. Was thinking about sticking around Tilt for a while after I clear the bonus for non-HE games only. Fuck that! I'm gone as soon as it's cleared.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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MTPaid
 
Posts: 3681
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:42 am
Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Thu Feb 07, 2008 1:18 pm

This is pretty humorous. So I just kept getting it in with good equity and mostly getting scooped last night. Finally, FINALLY, I flop great, pot it WAY ahead, get it in on the turn in a freeroll situation, then actually scoop the pot and I gotta hear shit from this guy.

$0.25/$0.5 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo
9 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($24.05)
UTG+1 ($23.50)
MP1 ($53.65)
MP2 ($30.25)
MP3 ($71.00)
CO ($45.85)
BTN ($46.35)
SB ($20.25)
Hero ($22.15)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is BB [4c][3d][Ad][Kd]
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.5 ($53.15), 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.5 ($70.50), 1 fold, BTN calls $0.5 ($45.85), SB calls $0.25 ($19.75), Hero checks ($21.65)
ImageImageImageImage 37.10% (EV = $0.43)
ImageImageImageImage 62.90% (EV = $1.07)

Flop: [3c][2s][3h] ($2.5, 5 players)
SB checks ($19.75), Hero bets $2.5 ($19.15), 3 folds, SB calls $2.5 ($17.25)
ImageImageImageImage 23.70% (EV = -$0.72)
ImageImageImageImage 76.30% (EV = $3.22)

Turn: [8d] ($7.5, 2 players)
SB checks ($17.25), Hero bets $7 ($12.15), SB raises to $14 ($3.25), Hero goes all-in $19.15 ($0.00), SB calls $3.25 ($0.00)
ImageImageImageImage 42.50% (EV = $1.41)
ImageImageImageImage 57.50% (EV = $6.09)

River: [Kh] ($43.9, 2 players)
ImageImageImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)
ImageImageImageImage 100.00% (EV = $43.90)

Final Pot: $42
SB shows: [8s][Qh][Td][3s]
Hero shows: [4c][3d][Ad][Kd]

Hero wins $41.8 ( won +$19.65 )
MP3 lost -$0.50
BTN lost -$0.50
SB lost -$20.25
MP1 lost -$0.50


So he catches lucky on the turn, was never really ahead in the hand, and then bitches about my "suckout". Not only that, the genius called it a one outter. :shock:

This was pretty much the only time I got it in ahead and won in both sessions last night. I d did get it in pretty far behind twice though and scooped both those pots. Again, Full Tilt calls it variance.

Sat into a $25 PLO8 game full stacked last night. I'm actually realizing that I have a little bit, though not much on this site, more fold equity sometimes larger stacked where I can bluff a little more against the right players. Many are still unbluffable though. But compared to when nobody folds to a short stacked bet, it's something. I might start buying in full stacks more as I get more comfortable with it.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Thu Feb 07, 2008 6:09 pm

Wow! It is now abundantly clear that there are several words or phrases that the good people at Full Tilt don't know the meaning of which they should.

Occassionally, maybe once or twice a year, as part of my tilting away from the table and as a benefit to my mental health, I'll fire off an FU type e-mail to Full Tit.

Anyway, words and phrases they use, but don't really understand:

Variance - This is their excuse for everything. It's variance. But this word implied it's a variation of something else. If it's all the same shit all the time, it's not a variation of anything. It's the norm.

This is from their reply to me today:
I do wish to impress upon you that variance is not a bad thing in
poker--if there was no variance--that is, if the skillful players always
won at their expected rate, the lesser players would never play with
good players


So clearly, they don't understand the meaning of "expected win rate" either. How could you not expect to win at your expected win rate? The word EXPECTED is right in the phrase, therefore implying that you should inded EXPECT it.

So while nobody should expect to win every hand and the fish will win occasionally, which is why they play, of course players should expect to win at their expected win rate over time and the lesser plays should eventually lose when that happens and then they would stop playing in which case there would be new lesser players and we start the cycle all over again.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Thu Feb 07, 2008 11:33 pm

Broke down and finally bought PTOmaha tonight. I'll call it my birthday gift to myself. Anyway, now I can post my Poker EV chart in the $50 PLO8 game on Full Tilt.

I'll be the first to admit that I'm still learning the game and occassionally get my money in bad, but as you can see, I definitely deserve a little bit better....

Image

Looking through a lot of my hands this year, it looks like somehow I'm betting/raising and getting called by some horrid looking hands, but they always seem to be the perfect hand against with the highest percentage to win over only the specific cards I'm holding. Like I'd raise AAxx which would be a favorite over A2x type hands, but I'm getting called by 23QT and A478 for 1/2 their stacks preflop raised and re-raised. Somehow QT23, which looks like a terrible hand to cold call a preflop re-raise, is the favorite. So obviously I still have a lot to learn about this game......

I was kinda hoping that I could get HU with the min-raiser, but QT23 is a better hand than I thought. He knew it, I didn't.

$0.25/$0.5 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo
9 players
Converted at

Stacks:
Hero ($19.10)
UTG+1 ($14.40)
MP1 ($11.05)
MP2 ($12.00)
MP3 ($19.00)
CO ($54.25)
BTN ($27.55)
SB ($19.00)
BB ($8.85)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is UTG [As][6c][Js][Ad]
Hero calls $0.5 ($18.60), 1 fold, MP1 raises to $1 ($10.05), 3 folds, BTN calls $1 ($26.55), 1 fold, BB calls $0.5 ($7.85), Hero raises to $5.25 ($13.35), MP1 calls $4.25 ($5.80), BTN folds ($26.55), BB calls $4.25 ($3.60)
ImageImageImageImage 37.30% (EV = $1.09)
ImageImageImageImage 35.80% (EV = $0.84)
ImageImageImageImage 26.90% (EV = -$0.68)

Flop: [Th][8s][3d] ($17, 3 players)
BB goes all-in $3.6 ($0.00), Hero goes all-in $13.85 ($0.00), MP1 calls $5.8 ($0.00)
ImageImageImageImage 41.30% (EV = $10.82)
ImageImageImageImage 40.70% (EV = $7.71)
ImageImageImageImage 18.00% (EV = -$6.61)

Turn: [9s] ($40.25, 3 players)
ImageImageImageImage 25.00% (EV = $10.06)
ImageImageImageImage 45.80% (EV = $12.73)
ImageImageImageImage 29.20% (EV = $11.75)

River: [Qc] ($40.25, 3 players)
ImageImageImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)
ImageImageImageImage 100.00% (EV = $27.80)
ImageImageImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)

Final Pot: $32.20
MP1 shows: [4h][5h][7s][Ah]
BB shows: [3s][Qd][Ts][2d]
Hero shows: [As][6c][Js][Ad]

BB wins $26.45 ( won +$17.6 )
Hero wins $12.2 ( lost -$6.9 )
MP1 lost -$11.05
BTN lost -$1.00
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Posts: 3681
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Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:14 pm

I really think I'm starting to get the hang of this PLO8 game. As I understand it, when you enter a pot, there are 3 possibilities:

1 - You can get counterfeited.
2 - You can get sucked out on.
3 - You can get quartered.

So far, I've been mostly aiming for #2 and quite successfully. You would think I was trying to lose. Running at -10.75 BB/100

I mean would somebody please, PLEASE explain this players call at any point in the hand? I only have the double nut draw.....AGAIN. I just have half the deck twice to make my hand. Full Tilt calls it more variance. I call it another losing session. Which is the norm, not variance.

$0.25/$0.5 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo
7 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($46.45)
UTG+1 ($15.15)
MP ($11.00)
CO ($19.45)
Hero ($13.50)
SB ($45.25)
BB ($9.50)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 7 players) Hero is BTN [Ad][Qd][Ks][2h]
UTG calls $0.5 ($45.95), UTG+1 calls $0.5 ($14.65), MP raises to $2.75 ($8.25), 1 fold, Hero calls $2.75 ($10.75), 1 fold, BB calls $2.25 ($6.75), UTG folds ($45.95), UTG+1 calls $2.25 ($12.40)
ImageImageImageImage 27.00% (EV = $0.42)
ImageImageImageImage 35.30% (EV = $1.40)
ImageImageImageImage 37.70% (EV = $1.68)

Flop: [3d][Jd][8s] ($11.75, 4 players)
BB checks ($6.75), UTG+1 checks ($12.40), MP goes all-in $8.25 ($0.00), Hero goes all-in $10.75 ($0.00), BB folds ($6.75), UTG+1 calls $10.75 ($1.65)
ImageImageImageImage 26.40% (EV = $1.39)
ImageImageImageImage 51.90% (EV = $10.79)
ImageImageImageImage 21.70% (EV = -$1.74)

Turn: [8h] ($41.5, 3 players)
ImageImageImageImage 52.80% (EV = $19.27)
ImageImageImageImage 31.90% (EV = $13.24)
ImageImageImageImage 15.30% (EV = $6.35)

River: [9h] ($41.5, 3 players)
ImageImageImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)
ImageImageImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)
ImageImageImageImage 100.00% (EV = $41.50)

Final Pot: $41.50
MP shows: [Kh][9d][Jh][Kd]
Hero shows: [Ad][Qd][Ks][2h]
UTG+1 shows: [Ah][6s][Th][7c]

UTG+1 wins $39.45 ( won +$25.95 )
MP lost -$11.00
Hero lost -$13.50
BB lost -$2.75
UTG lost -$0.50
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Posts: 3681
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Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Sun Feb 10, 2008 9:35 pm

Somewhat more normal, or at least as close to it as I think I can get on Full Tilt the past 2 days. Not very many $50 PLO8 tables available today. Matter of fact there was only 1 running during my 1st session and none during my 2nd session. Played some full stacked PLO8 $25, including some 6-max.

This was the only real SOB hand today, but it's also the only hand where I got most of my stack in without seeing a flop too:

$0.1/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo
4 players
Converted at

Stacks:
CO ($22.80)
BTN ($46.90)
SB ($8.90)
Hero ($21.40)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 4 players) Hero is BB [Ad][2s][Ac][5c]
CO calls $0.25 ($22.55), BTN calls $0.25 ($46.65), SB calls $0.15 ($8.65), Hero raises to $1.25 ($19.90), CO raises to $4.25 ($18.30), BTN folds ($46.65), SB folds ($8.65), Hero raises to $13.25 ($6.90), CO calls $9 ($9.55)
ImageImageImageImage 27.90% (EV = -$5.72)
ImageImageImageImage 72.10% (EV = $6.22)

Flop: [Td][7d][6d] ($27, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in $8.15 ($0.00), CO calls $8.15 ($1.40)
ImageImageImageImage 34.50% (EV = $6.79)
ImageImageImageImage 65.50% (EV = $20.21)

Turn: [Kc] ($43.3, 2 players)
ImageImageImageImage 70.60% (EV = $30.57)
ImageImageImageImage 29.40% (EV = $12.73)

River: [Qc] ($43.3, 2 players)
ImageImageImageImage 100.00% (EV = $43.30)
ImageImageImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)

Final Pot: $43.30
CO shows: [As][7s][Ks][2c]
Hero shows: [Ad][2s][Ac][5c]

CO wins $41.3 ( won +$19.9 )
BTN lost -$0.25
SB lost -$0.25
Hero lost -$21.40

-----------

Here are the only 2 trouble hands, which I also posted in the Omaha forum.....

$0.1/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo
5 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($13.90)
CO ($12.55)
BTN ($27.45)
SB ($8.75)
Hero ($22.95)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is BB [8h][4s][Ah][6c]
2 folds, BTN calls $0.25 ($27.20), SB calls $0.15 ($8.50), Hero checks ($22.70)

Flop: [7h][9h][4c] ($0.75, 3 players)
SB bets $0.25 ($8.25), Hero calls $0.25 ($22.45), BTN raises to $1.5 ($25.70), SB calls $1.25 ($7.00), Hero calls $1.25 ($21.20)

Turn: [Ts] ($5.25, 3 players)
SB checks ($7.00), Hero bets $5.25 ($15.95), BTN raises to $21 ($4.70), SB folds ($7.00), Hero ???

-----------
No reads.

Opponent was fairly loose and aggressive (57/12 whatever that means in PLO8).
$0.1/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo
6 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($30.40)
UTG+1 ($11.80)
CO ($36.80)
BTN ($2.05)
SB ($13.40)
Hero ($25.65)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BB [Kc][Js][Jc][Kd]
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.85 ($10.95), 2 folds, SB calls $0.75 ($12.55), Hero calls $0.6 ($24.80)

Flop: [5c][Qh][4c] ($2.55, 3 players)
SB checks ($12.55), Hero checks ($24.80), UTG+1 bets $2.55 ($8.40), SB calls $2.55 ($10.00), Hero ???
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
User avatar
MTPaid
 
Posts: 3681
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:42 am
Location: New Jersey

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