Here's a few interesting stats.
2 days into February, 2 losing days at Full Tilt, 2 winning days at Stars.
Had the chip lead deep into another Full Tilt MTT tonight, PLO8 this time and had my heart ripped out again. Couldn't have hand picked more disgusting cards for the last few rivers.
Even more interesting.....
If I lose this week, which is very possible, I'm slightly down not including bonus, I will have lost 10 of the last 12 weeks yet still be just about break even in that span.
I'll also have lost 17 of the last 23 weeks going back to the end of August, but I'm still actually in profit over that span as well as 3 of the 5 months have been profitable.
Strange and frustrating.
The disturbing thing is that the Full Tilt MTT's have become exactly like the cash games. Maybe they've always been but I forgot because I haven't played tournaments there since October.
You fold a bunch of hands in a row, then you bet and wait for the inevitable shove.
You have nothing, they raise and win.
You have something, they don't care, they raise and sometimes you win, sometimes they suck out.
You try to bluff they raise.
They bet, you raise, they shove.
You shove, they don't care, they call.
The more hands they take to showdown, the more chips they accumulate.
Your weapons are very limited. They completely take away aggression from your arsenal. I've been doing very well in the early and even middle stages this week, but always running smack into catastrophe middle/late before or around the bubble.
Here's the crusher tonight:
Right around the bubble. About 30 left, 27 paid. I'm the chip leader and of course BB is 2nd in chips. Shittiest river card possible for me.
Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Tournament
$3000 Guarantee
8 players
Converted at
Stacks:
UTG (
36684)
UTG+1 (
3180)
MP1 (
26146)
Hero (42106)
CO (18424)
BTN (
20832)
SB (
2651)
BB (42070)
Blinds: 400/800
Pre-flop: (
1200, 8 players)
Hero is MP2 [As][Qs][4c]
3 folds,
Hero raises to 2800 (39306), CO calls 2800 (15624),
2 folds, BB calls 2000 (39270)
Flop: [4d][Jh] (
8804, 3 players)
BB bets 2400 (36870),
Hero raises to 8000 (31306),
1 fold, BB calls 5600 (31270)
Turn: (
24808, 2 players)
BB checks (31270),
Hero bets 11200 (20106), BB calls 11200 (20070)
River: (
47208, 2 players)
BB goes all-in 20070 (0),
Hero folds (20106)
Final Pot: 47200
BB wins 67270 ( won +25200 )
CO lost -2800
Hero lost -22000
And here's the exit hand in 18th.....
Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Tournament
$3000 Guarantee
9 players
Converted at
Stacks:
UTG (
7995)
UTG+1 (
81574)
MP1 (
27996)
MP2 (41318)
MP3 (
14815)
CO (
16640)
BTN (
22056)
SB (
38438)
Hero (18435)
Blinds: 1000/2000
Pre-flop: (
3000, 9 players)
Hero is BB [Kd][Ks][Jd]
3 folds,
MP2 raises to 6000 (35318),
4 folds,
Hero goes all-in 18435 (0), MP2 calls 12435 (22883)
46.60% (EV = $144.42)
53.40% (EV = $1788.65)
Flop: [8c][7h] (
37872, 2 players)
51.90% (EV = $20692.53)
48.10% (EV = $18219.80)
Turn: (
37879, 2 players)
58.80% (EV = $23443.56)
41.20% (EV = $15609.03)
River: (
37886, 2 players)
0.00% (EV = $0.00)
100.00% (EV = $37870.00)
Final Pot: 37870
Hero shows:
[Kd][Ks][Jd]
MP2 shows:
[4c][2h][Ad]
MP2 wins 27677 ( won +9242 )
Hero lost -18435