People keep discounting the backdoor flush, but I don't think it's as unlikely as people say - precisely because of the stack sizes.

If UTG has a [Jc]/[Ac][Tc] type of hand - the flop raise and c-bet are standard. After OP raises the c-bet, the stack sizes come into play -

With 100BB effective stacks, it's a pretty easy fold with 2 overcards and a BDFD - the raise is 25% of the stacks..

With 250BB effective stacks, calling the raise commits less than 10% of your stack - UTG can call with a much wider range here.

On the turn he picks up his flush draw - he needs to call $860 with $1890 already in the pot and $3500 behind - again, it's close, but I think he has the implied odds to call here.

And once he hits his flush on the river, he's just thinking about how to get all his chips in the middle.


And don't forget - there was a 25/50 game yesterday where someone stacked off 600BB with unimproved Aces, so it wouldn't be unheard of for villain to show down less than a better FH here.

I'm starting to wonder what villain put HERO on. If Villain doesn't think a 2, KK or QQ is in HERO's range here, doesn't that make villain want to value stack the river with any flush, KQ, or AA here? Also, maybe make a big bluff on the river(with any holdings) because the hands that HERO could have here and calls with are few and far between? OP did say that Villain has been playing aggressive and knew Hero had been playing conservative...

I think I'm starting to fog up.

Of course, if Villain knew that he could make him fold small FH's in this spot, I imagine Villain might bluff here quite often...or in alot of other spots.

I wouldnt fold QQ on that turn if I was villain. Why would I put hero on a K?